More QE Needed & Market Signals Suggest it Might be Coming
Hat-tip DC for idea of this post.. The handy chart below shows where the Fed has started and ended various QE programs and how the SPX has performed during those various campaigns. It’s cut-off is later 2013, so it fails…...
DJI Both Vying for and Augmenting Copper’s Status as the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
Over two years ago we began highlighting the similarities b/t the way the copper and the Nikkei ended their secular bears over the 1989-2002 and 1989-2008 periods, respectively. Specifically, we focused on the last few years in each of those…...
Gaining Additional Nikkei Clarity
Last week as the Nikkei began to break down on our post-pivot analog relative to expectations I was struggling to ascertain what was going on. We detailed as much in this post and offered a suggestion that despite that deviation in…...
More Nikkei Short-Termism & Analog Update
After correcting ~250 bps into Wednesday 6/10 of this week, the Nikkei rebounded sharply last night. This transition to strength from weakness over the past day resulted in a ~350 bps swing in the U.S. futures contract’s 10 hour RoC…...
Silver Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
What we’re about to do in this post with silver is highly similar to the analysis we presented on China in early Jul-12 in this post where we suggested the region’s equities, despite Barron’s call for a credit crisis to…...
Where Did All the Equity VOL Go?
Much has been made of late about the absence of domestic equity market VOL; seemingly, much of that VOL, or at least the pretense of it in the financial press, appears to be focused on global sovereign debt instead. I decided…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 2)
I wanted to build off the simple short-termist statistical analysis on the Nikkei posted earlier today with a similar analog/technical round-up on the index as well. What we’re trying to do today is tie our short-term views on the index…...
Analog Update
Below is a quick update to our recent pivot point analog post on the Nikkei a few weeks ago in which we outlined our belief that the BoJ was unlikely to expand the scope of its QE program at its next…...
Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013
Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there, I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...
4/30 or 5/21?
The BoJ has upcoming monetary policy meetings/announcements as follows. I consider the latter schedule very important v-a-v our ongoing assessment of the Nikkei’s progress relative to our 6 mo RoC framework. Specifically, I find the 4/30 and 5/21 policy dates…...