Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows
For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...
Where are the Most Appropriate Places to be Levered & Long in Anticipation of a Cycle Bottom?
What I’ve attempted to do here is put together the easiest, yet most robust macro tool that I could fathom, that each of you can use in the future if for some reason(s) our working relationship end. In its simplest…...
Market Has Been up 11 of Past 12 Months; This Has Now Happened 26x Dating Back to 1896
Incredibly (i.e., in the context of the perma-doom and gloom that exists), the Dow has been up 11 of the past 12 months as of September’s close. This has now happened 26x through history dating back to 1896. What typically…...
Continue to Reiterate that Homebuilders Likely Have More Upside & Out-Performance Left
The chart below plots the post peak price bubble analog we’ve highlighted numerous times before with prices updated through today. The black line is the S&P Homebuilders Index. Our ongoing thesis has been that it will ultimately reach ~50% of…...
History Suggests an 80% Chance Gold is Higher a Year from Now with the Potential for Gains Reaching or Exceeding 20%
Technically speaking we recently noted gold has been battling its first real test of resistance since bottoming in May at $1,525. Specifically, gold has been battling its 61.8% retracement level formed b/t its 2011 highs and 2012 lows for the…...
Nat Gas Going to $7 in Coming Months?
Our progression on Nat Gas has gone from incredulity in June even as it had just rallied ~40%, to bullish a few weeks ago. In June we noted that despite a ~40% rally off its decade-long lows, the commodity had…...
Historically, What’s 4Q Looked Like When the Market Has Been Up a 4th Consecutive Year, YTD through 3Q?
This is a relevant question – with the Dow up 11% YTD through 3Q, it appears as if the index will register a 4th consecutive annual gain. To answer that question, see the analog below. In it, I’ve looked at…...
Using Historical Parallels to Forecast Equity Returns in 2013 & Thereafter
Let us preface this post with the following – we are NOT doom and gloomers and we hesitate to even pen a post implying the market could fall materially, which is what we do below. In fact, we are incredibly…...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative for Six Straight Months for First Time Since September 2007; What’s it Mean?
With its reading of -0.87 in August, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) has now printed in negative territory for the six consecutive months. This is the first time we’ve had six consecutive negative prints on the index since September…...
Are Silver’s Best Days Ahead of It?
We struggle with silver. We know some see it as a currency, like gold. As such, QE and central banker largesse around the globe, which will likely go on ad infinitum, should naturally benefit the metal. However, at the same…...