More Elaboration on the Potential for the Fireworks Dissipating
At the end of October we had two detailed posts (here’s #1 and here’s #2) that suggested 2014 could very well turn out to be a year that lacked fireworks, unlike every single year since the global equity/debt/real estate peak in…...
Year 6
We’ve discussed the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain paradigm and analog incessantly over the past year. With the Dow up 18% YTD and a ~30 trading days left in the year, unless something shockingly exogenous occurs, 2013 is going to go…...
China Analog Update
We called for a major bottom in Chinese equities in early July, concurrent with Barron’s call for a renewed credit crisis in the region. Our call was simple and objective – at the time > 80% of the SSEC’s trailing…...
Historical Parallels of Current Cycle Beginning to Narrow
If there’s one unrelenting cycle paradigm we’ve used to think about the market for the past year it’s been the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog. The relevance of that historical paradigm for today’s cycle is the fact that 2012/2013 also…...
Japan Update
Last week we had a detailed Japan-related update with fresh thoughts on the Yen and Nikkei. We suggested executing a short on the Yen. We withheld conviction on the Nikkei but highlighted the potential for the index to decline ~20%…...
Multi-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result, the Nikkei sustained strength)…....
Additional Details to Build on Yesterday’s Cycle Analysis Post
Yesterday we updated a cycle analysis post originally conducted in mid-August 2012. While the original post from mid-August 2012 suggested the DJIA would be up with 91% probability one year forward (i.e., into mid-August 2013) with a sizable median expected…...
Revisiting Last Year’s Analysis that Foresaw the Rally of 2013 and What it Says about the Future
One of the better pieces of analytical work I’ve done on this site since launching it is this piece from last August. That analysis showed that during 2Q12 the DJIA’s weekly YoY went to >20% in a quarter after being…...
Framework for Assessing Progress of Late June’s Pivot Low in Chinese Equities
On 7/2 we had a post suggesting Chinese equities, in contrast to Barron’s call for a renewed crash/credit crisis, were likely nearing a major low. That call was based on a very simple (and thus elegant) analysis that showed the…...
Analog Update
Toward the end of last year and for the entirety of this year, our framework for thinking about 2013 has been as follows: 2012 marked a 4th consecutive annual gain for the market (Dow); historically that had happened only six previous times…...