Lower and then Higher (Significantly)
I started the year with a very bullish bias and believed the presence of robust analytics supported such a disposition. However, those analytics were fairly binomial with respect to the timing of their expected bullish outcome – they necessitated a…...
Nikkei Remains on Track
Wanted to update our ongoing Nikkei 6 mo RoC > 65% analog (a previous update here). Prices in the charts below reflect today’s US futures based price of ~14,450 as this is what tonight’s Japanese-based trade will likely converge around…....
Nikkei Analog Update
The concept for this analog was originally presented here as a refresher. Updates for the analog are provided across time-frames as follows: Daily Weekly Both are remarkably identical. In fact, this is one of the closest analogs I’ve ever put…...
Adding a Wrinkle to the Nikkei
On the site we’ve repeatedly discussed the Nikkei’s massive rally from fall 2012 to May 2013 which, over the course of ~six months, totaled ~85% and how among other major asset classes we can find only two other examples of…...
Analog Update
At this point, the most helpful thing we can probably do is turn to our set of analogs to help us visually understand the world. A) 4th-5h Consecutive Annual Gain B) 4 Yr RoC > 100% for First time in…...
Nikkei’s Path Since Initial May 2013 Peak On Track
I continue to believe the Nikkei is likely in a new secular bull and I’ve backed this view with loads of work on this site dating back to 2012 as can be found in the “Nikkei” category. Our favored analogs…...
Charting a Path to 45,000
We were very early to the Nikkei long and secular bull story, having first outlined the rough sketches of this call all the way back in June 2012, long before it was fashionable. We added greater depth and confidence to…
NBD
No big deal, but the Nikkei is currently pressing up against 24-year resistance line (1) in the chart below. I’ll merely point out that the index has not been above this resistance line since 1989, or coming off its all-time…...
24-Year Support at Hand for This Ratio
The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is at 24-year support line (1) below. Additionally, line (2) support is at hand. I would note that line (1) was not hit in May when the Nikkei peaked at 16K. Line (1)…...
Lower-Risk/Higher-Reward Spread Trade Idea Useful for Those Looking to Deploy Excess Cash Balances
In the following chart we show the ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold. Into its 2012/2013 low of ~5, this ratio had fallen ~90% from its 2000-era high of ~70. However, upon hitting 12.38 last week, note the ratio has…...