SPX Technicals
If yesterday’s post is correct, and the market needs to fall per the 4th/5th/6th consecutive gain analog, just like it did from July-October 1990, then we need to think about potential downside targets. Again, these targets assume that yesterday’s thesis…...
August 1990
U.S. equities are at a very critical juncture. Though I have repeatedly pronounced that “risks remain to the upside” this year, nowhere on the site have I suggested or openly advocated a major over-weight in any type of index-related ETF…...
U.S. Rate Structure Set to Move Higher
Had a recent post on the 10-yr bond that suggested a break-down in prices (and rise in rates) was very close. That prognostication has yet to materialize. Having said that, I’m no less convinced that it will indeed materialize; it’s…...
Nikkei 225 Components Tearing Through Quarter-Century Resistance to Upside
In the chart below I present a handful of Nikkei 225 components that are tearing through quarter-century resistance via upside break-outs. In each case this resistance dates back to the stocks’ all-time highs coinciding with the Nikkei’s own all-time high…...
Triggers to the Next Leg of the Nikkei Run
Last night Japan’s CPI printed +3.6% YoY in June, down from 3.7% YoY in the prior month, but holding steady at near 23 year highs per the chart below. This is key and core to our ongoing Japan/Nikkei thesis –…...
Disparity b/t Multi-Year SPX Performance & EPS Growth Remains Acute, but When Will it Matter?
In late December of last year I penned a piece detailing the increasingly massive disparity b/t SPX performance relative to the underlying EPS growth of the same index. In that post we filtered for periods in history dating back to…...
A Quick, but Compelling Set of Triangulated Data Points
Haven’t had a ton to write about lately in a formalized fashion on the site. Most all of our ideas are working so far this year, which is nice. I think I’ve mentioned this before, but if there’s anything I’ve…...
Thin Red Line
Forget everything I’ve said about the Nikkei over the past 12-18 months; all the words, analogs and postulations. Instead, focus on the thin red resistance line (1) in the chart below. It is the only thing that matters to the…...
US Bond Price Downside: Time to Ride the Second Wave?
We began espousing the idea that bonds had peaked on a secular and cyclical basis in spring 2013. While it’s been very fashionable to hold such a view for many, many years now (hyperinflation has been imminent since QE1 in…...
IBEX to Outperform SPX
In the chart below the ratio of the IBEX vs. SPX is attempting to break above long-term resistance line (1). Look at how well-behaved the ratio b/t these two assets has been across this line historically. Also note the precipitous…...