Trade Idea in Gold Miners
I think it’s time to be short this group. Referring back to this post from July 21, we noted the potential for a repeating pattern in the Arca Gold Miners index. In that post, we noted the index could bounce…...
If Silver Was a Bubble and 2011 Marked the Top, This is Where the Second Wave of Selling Likely Begins
It’s been a long time since we’ve done any work on silver or precious metals for that matter. There just haven’t been many interesting technical set-ups to speak of one way or the other. However, that seems to have changed…...
Post Bubble Analog Suggests Housing Stocks Closer to Full Valuation than Nat Gas
In this post we highlight our post bubble analogs to see how close housing-related stocks and Nat Gas have come to lessening the valuation gap they’ve recently exhibited vs. where other bubbles have tended to trade some ~375-400 weeks after…...
Correlation vs. Causation – Why Has This Industry’s Relative Strength Been So Dependent on the USD Since 2000?
The chart below plots the ratio of the the S&P500 Food Retail Index vs. the SPX since 2000 in black. In green, it also plots the path of the USD over the same period. Why are these two items so…...
Defense Out-Performance Thesis Yielding More Fruit Post-Election
Like TASR, SWHC was one of the names highlighted in our original defense industry out-performance thesis. We didn’t single it out as a focus name like TASR as it had already had a monster run and was approaching long-term resistance…...
Opportunities in the Building Products & Construction Materials Space
Chart below plots the S&P Building Products Index. Remarkably, off its lows last October, the index is up ~145%. Now the index is approaching resistance line (1) dating back to 2007. It’s also approaching resistance region (A) which dates back…...
Bio-Techs Approaching Near-Term Support
We’ve been bullish on this group for as long as we can remember going back a full four months to this post. We’ve talked recently about the possibility for the group to remain a sustainable out-performer here. As of late…
Miners Appear Poised for Further Out-Performance vs. Gold
The chart below plots the ratio of the Arca Gold Miners Index vs. Gold. As you can see, early in 2012 the ratio hit extremely over-sold territory which has typically led to strong bounces whereby miners out-perform the metal itself…....
A Decade-Long Under-Performer, this Industry Could Soon See that Trend Reverse
First chart is the ratio of the DJ Specialized Consumer Services Index (DJUSCS) vs. SPX. This index is a hodgepodge of sorts but includes education & training companies, which are this post’s focal point as a source of potential out-performance…....
TASR Up 20% in Three Weeks as Defense Industry Out-Performance Thesis Bears Fruit
On October 2nd we noted in a post that companies in the defense industry were likely to out-perform the broader market moving forward. In that post we stated the following: “…we would anticipate that defense stocks could out-perform for some…