V and MA presented in the chart below. Both are reaching/close to formidable long-term resistance lines. As this resistance approaches, a timely contrarian cover story in Barron’s this past week espousing the need to buy both names. The long-term thesis…...
Throughout 2012, every time we saw a 5%-10% correction, we heard the “CRASH!” sirens going off. As we pointed out here during the last such correction into November, the crash had already happened, but it was in 2011 when nobody…
Here was our original post on grains back in September. In that post we suggested being short some combo of soybeans, wheat and corn. All are down double-digits or are close to being down that much since the post. In…...
Let’s just get this out of the way right up front – I was completely,unequivocally wrong to pivot to the “not-bullish / mildly bearish” camp late last week. I think it’s quite clear that the combination of Monday’s ~25 pt…
This post builds off my previous email today in which I effectively drew a line in the sand and pivoted to the “not bullish / mildly bearish” camp. As I noted in that email, with the Dow down ~340 bps…...
Our first high conviction short Yen trade came on August 14th in this post. At the time the Yen traded at ~1.27 vs. the current ~1.156, a decline of 9%+ over less than four months. Not too bad of a…
In an email in the week preceding Xmas I noted in the analog below that at point (A) there was a two-day, 175 bps sell-off in the Dow. This sell-off occurred over the days of 12/28/88-1/3/89. Given the way the…...
Dating back to June of this year we have been suggesting that the potential for a longer-term reversal in the USD could lead to small-caps sustainably under-performing the broader market. We continue to believe this today. Even if the USD…
Anybody find it ironic that the USD suggests the following… While the silver analog suggests this…? and the AMEX Gold Bugs Index is doing this…?...
On 12/12 behind a password-protected post on RIMM, we said the following about the name as it approached $14 that week: “In fact, it faces five major resistance points…all at the same time and all of which run to ~$13.65-$14.00…