Any Clues Provided by the USD’s Large Losses Today?

As of right now the USD is down ~110 bps on the day. Since March 2009 there have been 33 other occurrences of single-day USD declines of at least 100 bps. The last instance dates all the way back to…...

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Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Anything about Global Risks, Future Path of Equities?

We’ve spent a lot of time recently pointing out how many different price-based indicators are sitting at extremes. The ratio of copper vs. gold, a barometer of sorts for global economic activity/fear levels/risk appetite, is no different. In the chart…...

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Price Action Suggests Gold Miners in a Down-Trend/Bear Market; Next Stop ~15%-20% Lower?

There aren’t many places to hide these days. Short of bonds, the USD, staples, utilities and bio-techs, it’s tough to find favorable price action in much of anything. This is true too for the Gold Miners Index, presented on a monthly…...

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Low Beta Leaders @ Resistance; High Beta Laggards @ Support = Potential Inflection Point for Broader Risk Appetite

Below is quarter-to-date (QTD) performance across SPX sector ETFs. Leaders (lower beta and only sectors up QTD): 1) Utilities (+11%) 2) Healthcare (+7%) 3) Staples (+6%) 4) Consumer Disc (+1%) Laggards (higher beta): 1) Energy (-5%) 2) Financials (-4%) 3) Industrials…...

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Taking a Quick Dive into Market Internals

Attached is a chart that compares new 52 week lows on the NYSE against the SPX over the past year+. A couple of points that should stand out immediately: 1) New 52 week lows continue to trend higher even as…...

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Revisiting the R2K – If History is Correct, Downside Risks Remain Elevated over Intermediate-Term

On 5/31/12 we ran a post on the R2K that suggested, based on its current price structure and momentum in the context of history, the path of least resistance for the index was lower, not higher, over the intermediate term…....

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Nat Gas’s 40% Rally off its Lows Has Proven Little From a Long-Term Perspective

Earlier this year Nat Gas broke through a 20 year support line (1) rather forcefully. Since then the commodity has rallied ~40% off its proximate decade-long low of ~$1.90. That rally has taken it back up to its first noteworthy…...

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Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Bio-Techs, a Leadership Group, Face Stiff Resistance (Same Resistance Faced at top of SPX Bear Market Retracement Rallies in 2001/2008)

Below is a table (via Finviz.com) that details YTD industry performance – biotech has been a standout YTD, up 22% and in 11th place out of all industries. That said, in the chart below the group’s YTD rally, via the DJ…...

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More Analysis Around the Potential for a Greek Exit / Drachma Reintroduction

A short while back we ran some detailed analysis on historical currency devaluation episodes and suggested that should Greece exit the Euro and reintroduce the Drachma, the time to buy Greek equities on a nominal basis would be at the time of…...

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Why has A Stock with a Great Fundamental Backdrop Fallen 40% in a Month? / The Power of Technicals

The chart below is of RGR (Sturm Ruger), a well known firearms manufacturer. The fundamental backdrop for this stock and its industry is excellent – obviously driven largely by fears of Obama’s perceived anti-gun rights political leanings. So, why then is…...

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