Crude’s Technicals Point To Additional Downside
In the chart below I present crude on a monthly HLC and closing basis. Note that as of August crude has broken back into a long-term, upward sloping channel formed by line (1) and (2). This development is incredibly important…...
The DJI’s Potentially Ominous Break of Long-Term Trend
Have been discussing 12 mo MAs on U.S. equity indices with some of you recently and their importance in defining cycle inflection points. If we go through the DJI as of July’s close we find that: It has closed > 12 mo…...
The Case for a Major SPX Top is Growing
I’ve found the trading pattern on the SPX from Oct-14 until now to be highly reminiscent of that from its topping process from Oct-99 through Aug-00. The process from Oct-99 through Aug-00 is best described by a major pivot low and immediate, strong…...
Recent Chinese Panic Could be First Clouds of Gathering Storm in Emerging Market Equities
I believe the recent panic in China might merely be the first set of clouds in what is to be a gathering storm that will hit EM equities. I say this because of the extremely bearish set up in anything EM-related that I…...
USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance
Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance. Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978. Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...
Set-Up for Nat Gas Appears Favorable
In the simply chart below of Nat Gas we find that it sits atop trend-line (1) support dating back to 1998. Absent a single, brief breach of this support in 2012, line (1) has acted as a solid launching pad…...
Palladium Decline Appears Set to Continue
About a month ago when palladium stood at $720 we noted in this post that it appeared to be decisively breaking multi-year (since 2010) trend-line support, per this chart. We built incrementally on our original palladium post with this one a…...
More QE Needed & Market Signals Suggest it Might be Coming
Hat-tip DC for idea of this post.. The handy chart below shows where the Fed has started and ended various QE programs and how the SPX has performed during those various campaigns. It’s cut-off is later 2013, so it fails…...
DJI Both Vying for and Augmenting Copper’s Status as the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
Over two years ago we began highlighting the similarities b/t the way the copper and the Nikkei ended their secular bears over the 1989-2002 and 1989-2008 periods, respectively. Specifically, we focused on the last few years in each of those…...
Gaining Additional Nikkei Clarity
Last week as the Nikkei began to break down on our post-pivot analog relative to expectations I was struggling to ascertain what was going on. We detailed as much in this post and offered a suggestion that despite that deviation in…...