Characteristics of PMs Today Increasingly Resemble that of SSEC in 2013, DJI in 1942
All the way back in July 2013 we began building a case for being long the SSEC even as Barron’s was then calling for the re-emergence of a crisis in the region. Arguably the most important pillar of our long thesis…...
Nikkei Back Above Critical Support
On the 60 min chart of USD-denominated Nikkei futures below, the index can be seen to have reclaimed critical support line (1) as of the close of trading yesterday. Upside has continued this AM to solidify that move. Line (1)…...
Echoes of 1914
A month ago on 7/23 we used this post to highlight the ominously fascinating cycle similarities b/t the DJI circa 1904-1914 and emerging markets, via EEM, 2004-current; we used the chart below and steps (1)-(10) to set those similarities off in deep…...
Nikkei Update
I wanted to update some of my Nikkei work, specifically the analogs comparing the DJI from Feb-26 through its Aug-29 top to the Nikkei from May-13 until current. Rather than spend time reviewing the original logic of why it made…...
The Case for a Major SPX Top is Growing
I’ve found the trading pattern on the SPX from Oct-14 until now to be highly reminiscent of that from its topping process from Oct-99 through Aug-00. The process from Oct-99 through Aug-00 is best described by a major pivot low and immediate, strong…...
Recent Chinese Panic Could be First Clouds of Gathering Storm in Emerging Market Equities
I believe the recent panic in China might merely be the first set of clouds in what is to be a gathering storm that will hit EM equities. I say this because of the extremely bearish set up in anything EM-related that I…...
USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance
Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance. Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978. Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...
Palladium Decline Appears Set to Continue
About a month ago when palladium stood at $720 we noted in this post that it appeared to be decisively breaking multi-year (since 2010) trend-line support, per this chart. We built incrementally on our original palladium post with this one a…...
DJI Both Vying for and Augmenting Copper’s Status as the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
Over two years ago we began highlighting the similarities b/t the way the copper and the Nikkei ended their secular bears over the 1989-2002 and 1989-2008 periods, respectively. Specifically, we focused on the last few years in each of those…...
Gaining Additional Nikkei Clarity
Last week as the Nikkei began to break down on our post-pivot analog relative to expectations I was struggling to ascertain what was going on. We detailed as much in this post and offered a suggestion that despite that deviation in…...