Looking in All the Wrong Places: Why Global Equities Are Set to Collapse
To say Draghi underwhelmed today would be an understatement; EUR is +300 bps and DAX is -450 bps while USD is +200 bps, the US long bond is -225 bps and SPX is -100 bps. I hold no position in any…...
1937 (May I Have Another?)
The comparisons b/t 1937 and modern-day, as worn out as they’ve become since originating as far back as 2010, have never been more striking, both fundamentally as a DEC rate hike becomes a lock and chart-wise as follows: If the…...
Crash Sequence?
Our case(s) for global equity weakness have been laid out in depth dating back to the third week of July beginning with EMs and then moving on to domestic/US. The following posts highlighted our attempt to build a foundation of work for that…...
Equities Will Surpise if Downside Ends Here
I will be very surprised if U.S. equities fail to register new lows in the coming days, despite the consensus view to the contrary. In addition to the logic we laid out in our last post explaining why, below we…...
Echoes of 1914
A month ago on 7/23 we used this post to highlight the ominously fascinating cycle similarities b/t the DJI circa 1904-1914 and emerging markets, via EEM, 2004-current; we used the chart below and steps (1)-(10) to set those similarities off in deep…...
Fed to Engineer Market “Shock” in August to Avert September Rate Hike?
An inverted DJI chart (to force our minds to re-think appearances) seems to be officially breaking out (down) from its bullish (bearish) pattern that’s developed over the past year at the inset. In doing so it also is breaking out (down)…...
The DJI’s Potentially Ominous Break of Long-Term Trend
Have been discussing 12 mo MAs on U.S. equity indices with some of you recently and their importance in defining cycle inflection points. If we go through the DJI as of July’s close we find that: It has closed > 12 mo…...
The Case for a Major SPX Top is Growing
I’ve found the trading pattern on the SPX from Oct-14 until now to be highly reminiscent of that from its topping process from Oct-99 through Aug-00. The process from Oct-99 through Aug-00 is best described by a major pivot low and immediate, strong…...
Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities
As you know, I’ve gotten structurally bearish over the past two weeks. Even if I’m wrong, I’m of the opinion that any U.S. equity upside is going to be more limited from current levels, likely no higher than Dow 16,250…...
Recent Rally in Crude to Pressure Equities?
SentimenTrader had an interesting analysis on the short and intermediate-term rally we’ve seen in oil this year and when it’s happened in the past, its implications for stocks. They looked at periods in the past when crude has jumped at…...