CRB Index Back to 45-Yr Resistance as Syrian Cease-Fire Falls Apart
Until the CRB crashed through it in late 2015/early 2016, line (1) in the chart below had held as support for over 40 years dating back to the early/mid 1970s, or the area where the hyperbolic ramp of commodity prices…...
Recent Renewal in Gold Upside Fits Our Historically Bullish Framework but Metal Faces Major Near-Term Test
On 1/18/16 I declared in this post that gold’s cycle low was in and only the path, duration and magnitude of any upside move was in question. Prior to that declaration, we emphasized over and over during the latter parts of…...
Early 2016’s Out-Performance in Gold vs. Other Commodities Signals New Bull Market for the Metal
In this 2/23/16 post we asked whether or not a sustained upside move in gold could continue to occur without other commodities in general also participating. In short, history suggested the answer to that question was yes. What we did not do in…...
Well-Defined Break-Downs in the Ratio of Gold vs. Silver Have Historically Led to Large Absolute Gains in Both
Much has recently been made about the decline in the ratio of gold vs. silver from near all-time highs of late. Less has been made of the fact that over the past week, that decline has seen the ratio break…...
This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble
As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...
CNY Cross vs. Gold Highly Informative, Signals Beginning of New Global Macro Regime
In the chart below I plot CNY vs. gold. The cross has been in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) dating back to 1996. Further, via the vertical blue lines, note that every major pivot in the prevailing…...
Near-Term Commdodity Resistance, but Big Picture Thematic Remains a World Beginning to Shift Away From Its Deflationary Anchor
In the chart below I highlight the CRB Index and the fact that at (A) it has rallied back up to test former 40-yr support line (1) after reaching less important, temporary support line (2) in Feb-16. Note that former 40-yr…
Silver Update: Beginning of a Major Rally
Last week we had a very simple post that highlighted silver had broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern off its 2011 highs. If we analoged the decline off the same 2011 highs and compared it to the decline…...
Big Silver Break-Out
Assuming gains hold through week-end, silver is staging a significant break-out from the descending wedge it’s been in since 2011 b/t lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. Further, per the analog on the same chart, notice how similar…...
Cross-Asset Macro Relationships Signal Crude Bottom
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude. This ratio has traded in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) since the 80s. The ratio hit channel resistance line (1) in Jan-16 for…...