PM VOL Compression
Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments in which…...
How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?
Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not the $20K it reached…...
How Historic Bubbles End
The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak. Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had envisioned for the asset relative…...
Has Bitcoin Stalled Out?
Our last piece on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT) was this post on 11/1/17. Included in it were two major conclusions: A major break-out in/around early Dec-17 was likely, akin to silver in Aug-79, where upside would begin to accelerate That upside had the chance to…...
The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…
What is Bitcoin Discounting?
On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT). In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010. In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...
Macro Round-Up
Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...
Silver Shorts?
As of last week silver managed its ninth consecutive weekly gain. The last time it closed with a weekly loss was during the week of Xmas, or 12/23/16. Over the course of its 9 week streak it rallied ~17%, closing…
Silver Upside Could Accelerate in the Near-Term
On 4/19 I outlined a simple techincal break-out for silver and suggested it could be the start of a major rally. I followed that up a week later on 4/27 with a post that showed how the ratio of gold vs. silver was breaking…...
Well-Defined Break-Downs in the Ratio of Gold vs. Silver Have Historically Led to Large Absolute Gains in Both
Much has recently been made about the decline in the ratio of gold vs. silver from near all-time highs of late. Less has been made of the fact that over the past week, that decline has seen the ratio break…...