Historical Cycle Analysis Update
This post looks at bull market cycle lengths through history. We define length as follows: 1) Cycle begins when Dow YoY goes to positive territory (at least +5%) from negative on a monthly basis 2) Cycle ends when Dow YoY goes…...
Nasdaq is at a 12 Year High, What’s it Mean in the Context of History?
Last week the Nasdaq closed at 3,194. This marked a 12 year high. The index hadn’t notched a 12 year high in 674 weeks, or nearly 13 years. What’s that mean in the context of history? Well, because the Nasdaq…...
Up 18% in Less than Two Months, the Nikkei’s Ascent to 14K This Year Continues Unabated
On December 13th when the index was ~1,700 points lower, we noted in this post that the Nikkei was working on a rather important technical break-out. In that post we suggested the following: “…a break above line (1) would be…
Historical Cycle Analysis – What Type is This & Where Are We?
The chart below plots the Dow since the late 1800s and includes its four-year rate-of-change (RoC). Why do I plot the four-year RoC? Through history, bull cycles have lasted 48 months on average, or four years. As such, I thought…...
Analog Update: More Near-Term Downside Likely but Cyclical Outlook Remains Bullish
We’re updating our 4th and 5th consecutive annual gain analog in the charts below. First chart displays those years in history that have represented 4th consecutive annual gains. As we have often noted, including in our 10/24 analog update, if…...
Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows
For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...
Where are the Most Appropriate Places to be Levered & Long in Anticipation of a Cycle Bottom?
What I’ve attempted to do here is put together the easiest, yet most robust macro tool that I could fathom, that each of you can use in the future if for some reason(s) our working relationship end. In its simplest…...
Did Yesterday’s Open-Ended QE Announcement by the Fed Usher in a New Reflationary Wave?
The chart below shows the SPX on a weekly basis. Line (1) represents what we believe to be the market/economy’s most important line in the sand since 1987 – an on/off switch if you will. Why? This line is where…
Can Gold Now Target $3,000 With Miners Out-Performing on the Ride Up?
Back in the saddle, finally. I apologize for being away so long. Regardless, prior to stepping away, I had begun to shift our focus toward metals and away from equities with the thought being that the best trading opportunities were…...
The Dow Has Never Had Four Consecutive Annual Gains in a Secular Bear Market / Are Central Banks Breaking Historical Market Cycles?
Do you believe this is a secular bear market? If you do, take note that the Dow has never registered four consecutive annual gains in a secular bear market – EVER. And yet, it was up in each of 2009,…