The Nikkei’s Price Action Continues to Offer a Veritable Gold Mine of Historical Informational Content
One of the things we have increasingly struggled with is that the Nikkei’s recent price action continues to statistically align with periods of instability and downside in the Dow. Just yesterday we had a post here pointing out as much,…...
Additional Historical Data to Clarify Cycle Type & Location
Last week SentimenTrader had a nice little piece detailing other periods in history where the SPX had gone at least five years before registering a new 10-year high as it did on Thursday. Thursday’s signal was the fourth in history…....
Where’s the Next Great Bull Market?
The first chart below plots the relative value of the Mid-Cap 400 Value Index vs. SPX from 2000-October 2002. This was the bear market coming off the heels of the tech bubble. As the chart suggests – the SPX was…
Perspective on the Nikkei’s Amazing Run
If the Nikkei finishes up on the week it will have posted gains in 18 of the past 20 weeks, or 90% of the time. Dating back to the 1800s, that’s never happened on the Dow. It happened on the…
Is James Glassman Really That Crazy, Why the Dow Potentially Has 60%-170% More Upside & Why Contrary to Michael Moore’s Views, Markets & Capitalism Worked Better Than Ever in Facilitating the Sub-Prime Crisis
Does anybody remember James Glassman? He’s that crazy guy who published this book in 1999 claiming the Dow would eclipse the 36K mark in ~three-five years. Turns out his earlier prediction wasn’t so correct. That doesn’t mean the guy doesn’t…
The Nikkei’s Switch Has Been Flipped to the “On” Position
Our single favorite asset class since starting this site last spring has been equities in general, but more specifically, the Nikkei. For those interested in our ongoing train of thought on why that has been the case, please see these…...
Nikkei in the Early Stages of a New Secular Bull Market?
I’ll let the economists debate why or why not Japanese stocks should or should not go up. All I know is that I feel that there is a reasonably compelling price-based justification for viewing the Nikkei’s nearly quarter-century secular bear…...
The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)
Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...
Equity Analog Update
Figured I would simply dump and update all the various equity analog sets we’ve been using for the past 6-9 months in one post so that collectively, they could paint a broad picture of the macro landscape. 4th & 5th…...
Dow Going to 17K Before 2013 is Up?
Look at the analog below. The black line is the Dow, 2012-2013YTD. We refrain from revealing what the red line is and why it makes sense to compare it to the black one. However, do they get more compelling than…