Buying this Mega-Cap Tech Stock
Very much in-line with our ongoing semi and MSFT thesis, be a buyer of CSCO. In the chart below the stock is breaking above ~13-yr resistance line (1) dating back to the early 00s. The height of the pattern formed…...
Disparity b/t Multi-Year SPX Performance & EPS Growth Remains Acute, but When Will it Matter?
In late December of last year I penned a piece detailing the increasingly massive disparity b/t SPX performance relative to the underlying EPS growth of the same index. In that post we filtered for periods in history dating back to…...
Reading the Tea Leaves
The reading industry has been universally loathed by the street for the better part of 15 years. By reading I mean book retailing. The initial onslaught of abhorrence came during the late 90s during the emergence of the internet. Web…...
Multi-Year Disparity Between SPX Gains and Actual SPX EPS Growth Alarming
I pointed out a few times late last year as it was underway that the YoY in SPX EPS, according to the monthly Shiller data, was in negative territory for seven consecutive months (Sep 2012-March 2013) even as the SPX…...
Semis On Deck
Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...
Revisiting an Old Long Opportunity
On 2/20/13 we had a post on MWW. It was one that was available to the public so we removed the name/price info of the stock in question in that post and revealed it only via email. At the time…...
Government Officials in this Foreign Industry Pressing for Consolidation Following Scares in Recent Years; Related Stocks Could Benefit
Remember the scare over contaminated Chinese dairy from 2008? Lots of children falling ill, some actually dying. Regardless, all bad news. Stocks like SYUT, a U.S.-listed, Chinese dairy producer highlight this bad news: peak to trough it declined by ~90%…
46 Months is All She Wrote?
Is that all she wrote for the current U.S. equity bull? The case may be quite simple and compelling: DURATION – at 46 months now, the current bull is the third longest in history. Only 2003-2008, 1924-1929 and 1991-2000 lasted…...
Compelling Risk/Reward for this Video Game Stock
I’ll preface by noting this is a higher-risk play. That said, its potential reward characteristics are vast and likely larger than any downside risk. Maybe the best way to think about it is as follows: If I told you a…...
Does Valuation Matter and if so, When from a Historical Cycle Standpoint?
I’ve done a few posts over the past few months on why this level of the Shiller P/E is so important. In a nutshell – this level of valuation historically acts as a switch either turning off more upside and…...