China Update
Last night Chinese Premier Li Keqiang made some comments re: future GDP growth, suggesting the country will seek to maintain a level of at least 7%. This was one of the more unequivocal and clear statements anybody in a position of…...
Another Former Tech-Sector Darling, This Group Has Languished for a Decade
Over the past year we outlined our view that old-line tech (can you believe we’re calling tech “old-line” these days?) would begin to out-perform the broader market. Specifically, we highlighted YHOO as our favored play for this theme. We updated…...
Analog Update
With respect to working the expected near-term correction on the Nikkei into an overall frame-work, the analog below might be a good foot. In it I compare, yet again, the 1988/1989 Dow vs. 2012/2013 SPX, both being respective 4th/5th consecutive…...
What Can Market Internals Tell Us About the Current U.S. Equity Sell-off?
If the selling is to continue, it likely does so until the 10 day MA of the ratio of NYSE 52 week lows vs. highs reaches the high teens in the chart below. As of right now, per the red…...
Will Emerging Market Underperformance Ever Cease?
I’ve been very mute on the topic of EMs for most of the site’s history. The only topic of conversation that has been seen on these pages has revolved around the idea that the decade long bull market in commodities…...
Is the Recent Increase in Rates Sustainable?
I believe it is. As we pointed out last week in this post, the ratio of the SPX vs. TYX was suggested a large and imminent move in one of two asset classes – either the SPX or rates. Turns…...
Prospect of Consolidation Could Support Out-Performance of this Industry
In the recent past there’s been some noise in the beleaguered publishing/media industry re: consolidation/M&A. Just last week GCI announced they’d pay a ~30% premium to acquire the media assets of BLC. On Friday, TWC shares rose by ~9% on…...
This Ratio Suggests an Imminently Large Move in one of Two Asset Classes
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the SPX vs. TYX (30 yr US rates). Historically the ratio traveled in the channel defined by lines (1) and (2) from 1997 until 2012, when it broke above. Since that…...
Does Valuation Matter and if so, When from a Historical Cycle Standpoint?
I’ve done a few posts over the past few months on why this level of the Shiller P/E is so important. In a nutshell – this level of valuation historically acts as a switch either turning off more upside and…...
Analog Update
This post is one giant analog dump. As it stands, I continue to see very little worth doing right now across financial markets. This suggests to me markets are in a place that rewards sitting and observing as the next…...