Airlines +19% in a Quarter vs. Flat SPX; More Upside Likely?
Here is a link detailing all of our bullish posts on airlines dating back to May 30th of last year. In the past quarter alone, since mid October when we suggested more airline out-performance, the group (via FAA) is up…
Airlines Continue to Out-Perform the Broader Market but is the Pace Set to Accelerate?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. FAA (airline ETF). Note that this week the ratio is breaking below support line (1) and seemingly falling back into a channel whose bottom is defined by line (2). If…
Technical Break-Outs in Airlines Occurring
The chart below is self-explanatory – various airline indices are clearing some noteworthy resistance with their push higher this week. We discussed the potential for this just a few days ago right here. Depending on which index you’re looking at,…
Airlines Have Greatly Out-Performed the SPX Since late May; More Upside to Come?
Our first post on the airlines and their potential for out-performance moving forward dates back to May 30 in this post. Since that time, when global risk assets in general were near their corrective summer lows, the S&P 500 Airlines…
Correlation vs. Causation – Why Has This Industry’s Relative Strength Been So Dependent on the USD Since 2000?
The chart below plots the ratio of the the S&P500 Food Retail Index vs. the SPX since 2000 in black. In green, it also plots the path of the USD over the same period. Why are these two items so…...
Set-Up in CAD$ Appears Unfavorable; Could Lead to Continued Softness in Crude, Out-Performance in Airlines
We find the set-up in the CAD$ unfavorable, both technically and from a sentiment standpoint. Technically, the FX finds itself facing very stiff resistance region (A) which marks highs dating back to 1972 as well as 2008/2011. At the same…...
Oil’s Decline Helping our Airline Out-Performance Thesis
We’ve re-visited the case for airlines out-performing two times on this site. Our last post on 9/7 was the catalyst for initiating a long spread trade in the group with a corresponding short in the SPX. On 9/14, we then…...
CAD$ at Resistance & Bulls At All-Time High
The chart below shows the CAD$ at resistance line (1) with crude facing resistance line (2). At the same time the % of the public that is bullish the CAD$ is now at ~85%, an all-time high rivaled only in…...
Case for Airlines Out-Performing Continues to Build
All the way back on May 30 we highlighted the emerging case for Airlines sustainably out-performing the SPX. We didn’t take a strong, high conviction stance on this belief, but merely stated the “possibility” for this happening was becoming stronger. At…
Airlines Successfully Clearing First Test of Resistance, More Upside in Play?
I know the airlines group is generally loathed. That said, in a post earlier this week it was noted that the group’s relative performance against the SPX has tracked the general decline in the USD for over a decade now and…...