On 12/16/15 I outlined in this reasonably detailed post what I thought were a collection of strong relative strength ideas. The overriding conclusion from all of the charts presented in that post was that non-cyclical areas of the world were apt…...
I have talked at length on the site about the deflationary forces behind CNH depreciation vs. the USD. My contention is that so long as a regime of CNH depreciation vs. USD is in place, global risk assets will remain…...
Suggested a long in WMT on 11/18/15 when the stock was ~$60 in this post. With today’s gains the stock is now printing ~$63, so ~+500 bps since then. By contrast, the SPX is -300 bps over the same period. That’s…...
Per the chart below, with today’s material break-down in global equities, the Russell 2000 appears to have completed a major, bearish, head & shoulders topping pattern that has formed over the past two years. Similar patterns formed around the index’s…...
Per nearly 50 years of history, silver’s meridian line, or line (1) support in the chart below, rests ~30% lower at ~$10. All of silver’s major pivots have came at this line. It consolidated its early 70s ramp in the…...
I generally believe the name of the game when it comes to my investment process is to idea-generate objective, fact-based historical frameworks – be they statistical, technical, analog or all of the above – that help map out various contingencies of how…
In the chart below I plot total U.S. market cap and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (B/S) in the top panel; in the lower panel I plot a ratio b/t the same two items [market cap / (Fed B/S)]. Disregarding anything…...
I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...
Based on the significant deterioration over the past year or two in electricity production in China alone, some might assume the country is in depression. Comparing the SSEC’s decline off its Jun-15 high to the move the SPX took off…...
TED spreads continue blowing out today, reaching 41 bps! Over the past two weeks they have now climbed ~60%. This two-week RoC is near unprecedented since 2007 save for the following discreet events: Mar-08 Sep-08 May-10 Aug-11 Make note, in…...