A long, long time ago in Aug-12 we wondered out loud if the world no longer needed coal. We went on to suggest a month later in Sep-12, mightily incorrectly we might add, that coal stocks could begin out-performing. Since both…...
Last Thurs and Fri the SPX printed two consecutive down days of at least 150 bps, reversing the pre and day of FOMC meeting ramp, as our data suggested would occur. Though our data was confirmed with the subsequent weakness,…...
In the chart below I plot TED spreads in the top panel (a topic initially visited yesterday), the SPX in the middle panel and gold in the bottom panel, all on a weekly basis. As can be seen in the…...
In the chart below I plot monthly Chinese electricity production (white) with gold (yellow) in the top panel. In the two panels below that I plot the 24 mo and 12 mo RoCs for Chinese electricity production, respectively. Note that…...
In the chart below I plot the following over the past year: USDCNH (inverted to show Yuan weakening; white) JNK (pink) Deutsche Bank (DB) 5 Yr CDS (inverted, so decline = CDS climbing; orange) SPX (red) TED spread (inverted, so decline…...
In the chart below note the CRB Index, though well into its breach, at least appears to be bottoming on a relative basis vs. the USD, as the ratio b/t the two reaches ~30 year support. There’s a little bit…...
On Tues and Wed, or the day before and the day of the FOMC decision on monetary policy, the SPX rose by at least 100 bps. That’s incredibly rare and has happened only five other times in modern history as…...
AMZN has had an amazing run since bottoming at <$300 in early 2015, having ripped ~135% higher in the process. Despite this run, the charts for the stock, both on an absolute basis and relative basis vs. nearly anything else you…
Have been scanning various industries/companies within those industries in recent weeks looking for areas that offer some combo of safety and/or out-performance opportunities “vs.” and “relative” to the SPX. There are a handful of industries that look very good right…...
The Bof J begins and concludes its monetary policy meeting tomorrow and Fri, respectively. The Fed tightens (highly likely) today and Draghi disappointed two weeks ago, so the BofJ really needs to pull through with a huge gift to global…...