I’ll get to the point – this is probably the best market timing tool I have ever seen or developed. More importantly, it’s the simplest. It’s something you can use on your own into perpetuity with a single, easy spreadsheet…...
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the SPX vs. TYX (30 yr US rates). Historically the ratio traveled in the channel defined by lines (1) and (2) from 1997 until 2012, when it broke above. Since that…...
Look at the ramps and subsequent crash set-ups in the Dow (20s), Nikkei (80s) and Nasdaq (00s) and how remarkably similar they are. Seriously, the patterns are near identical. Look at the near uniformity of the initial declines as well…...
I’ve done a few posts over the past few months on why this level of the Shiller P/E is so important. In a nutshell – this level of valuation historically acts as a switch either turning off more upside and…...
This post is one giant analog dump. As it stands, I continue to see very little worth doing right now across financial markets. This suggests to me markets are in a place that rewards sitting and observing as the next…...
Though U.S. bonds have fallen and rates have risen noticeably as of late, I believe both trends are set to continue, potentially in accelerated fashion. As a refresher, this thesis was first outlined in this post a month ago. In…...
When we were still communicating work via email, one of the earliest (first?) charts I believe I sent was of the SPX on a daily closing basis back to 2007/2008 where I depicted what I believed to be the index’s…...
In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance as it runs…...
As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and then correcting. With the above in…...