Can Markets & Cycles Really be Timed?

I’ll get to the point – this is probably the best market timing tool I have ever seen or developed. More importantly, it’s the simplest.  It’s something you can use on your own into perpetuity with a single, easy spreadsheet…...

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This Ratio Suggests an Imminently Large Move in one of Two Asset Classes

In the chart below I plot the ratio of the SPX vs. TYX (30 yr US rates). Historically the ratio traveled  in the channel defined by lines (1) and (2) from 1997 until 2012, when it broke above. Since that…...

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Anatomy of a Crash

Look at the ramps and subsequent crash set-ups in the Dow (20s), Nikkei (80s) and Nasdaq (00s) and how remarkably similar they are. Seriously, the patterns are near identical. Look at the near uniformity of the initial declines as well…...

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Does Valuation Matter and if so, When from a Historical Cycle Standpoint?

I’ve done a few posts over the past few months on why this level of the Shiller P/E is so important. In a nutshell – this level of valuation historically acts as a switch either turning off more upside and…...

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Analog Update

This post is one giant analog dump. As it stands, I continue to see very little worth doing right now across financial markets. This suggests to me markets are in a place that rewards sitting and observing as the next…...

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Bond/Interest Rate Thesis Update

Though U.S. bonds have fallen and rates have risen noticeably as of late, I believe both trends are set to continue, potentially in accelerated fashion. As a refresher, this thesis was first outlined in this post a month ago. In…...

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SPX Technical Update

When we were still communicating work via email, one of the earliest (first?) charts I believe I sent was of the SPX on a daily closing basis back to 2007/2008 where I depicted what I believed to be the index’s…...

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Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?

In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance as it runs…...

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Another Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei's Rise

As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and then correcting. With the above in…...

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Solar Stock Update

On February 19th we had a post that asked if solar stocks were intrinsically cheap. By “intrinsically cheap” we meant relative to the average and worst paths that other bubbles, after they had collapsed, had taken off their-all time highs…....

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