Two weeks ago Barron’s made what appeared to be a bold call for a credit crisis in China. They all but suggested that the probability of a Depression-style event was either rising or imminent. But, similar to their call to…...
In the scatter-plot below I show the 2 Yr RoC in the SPX (Y-axis) vs. the 2 Yr Roc in the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) (X-Axis) dating back to 1986. In the last few weeks the plot has been clustering…...
Add this to the obscure posts category. I’ve never spoken about the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) before but when you do hear about it, if you do at all, it’s usually re: how badly it’s been declining and why that’s…...
Warming up to coffee given the historical tendency for downside to abate when the two year RoC (i.e,. price momentum) reaches the -55% level, as it is now. This is in contrast to our ardent bearishness on the product dating…...
Here’s the updated silver analog chart below. Amazingly, it has been fulfilled nearly perfectly since we originally pointed it out as a reason to be short and/or avoid the PM complex all together. That was done all the way back…...
The vestige of 2008/2009 (or the summers of 2010/2011) and the specter of similar such events to come, seem to result in panic-induced selling quite frequently anymore. It seems as if market internals get ravaged so quickly that mere ~5%…...
If the selling is to continue, it likely does so until the 10 day MA of the ratio of NYSE 52 week lows vs. highs reaches the high teens in the chart below. As of right now, per the red…...
I’ve been very mute on the topic of EMs for most of the site’s history. The only topic of conversation that has been seen on these pages has revolved around the idea that the decade long bull market in commodities…...
I believe it is. As we pointed out last week in this post, the ratio of the SPX vs. TYX was suggested a large and imminent move in one of two asset classes – either the SPX or rates. Turns…...
In the recent past there’s been some noise in the beleaguered publishing/media industry re: consolidation/M&A. Just last week GCI announced they’d pay a ~30% premium to acquire the media assets of BLC. On Friday, TWC shares rose by ~9% on…...