GME's Business Model and Stock Price Appear to be in Terminal Decline

We’ll limit the commentary in this post as our thoughts are clearly outlined in the chart below (which we produced yesterday – GME reported EPS this morning), but broadly speaking, we think the prospects for this company’s business model and…

Despite Potential for Longer-Term Declines, 10 and 30 Yr UST Prices Approaching Near-Term Support and Could Bounce

We made the case a month ago that the secular bond bull in USTs was likely nearing its end. Since then, yields on the 10 Yr have risen 25%, as we pointed out yesterday. As the monthly charts of 10 and…

Pretty incredible analysis and statistically in-line with what I’ve noted recently – when the market’s price momentum, as gauged by its one year RoC / YoY is surging as much as it currently is (+22% this week) it typically means you’re in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
With 10 Yr Rates 25% Higher Since our Original Post, Were We Correct to Suggest on 7/17 that the Secular Bond Bull Was Nearing its End?

On July 17 we noted in a post that we believed the days of yield declines in UST securities was likely near an end. And we meant from a secular standpoint, not a cyclical one. We based this view on an…

Add gold to the list of things that remain epic-ly confusing. Watching this metal (and silver and everything else) is like watching paint dry. When will the next big move happen? If you refer back to our last post on…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Recent SPX Rally Has Taken it Up to Falling Resistance

Prior to the market’s ~50 bps reversal lower into the close today we put up a post re: negative divergences b/t prices and momentum in the SPY 60 min chart, suggesting that in the very near-term, such divergences suggested a…

Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY

Never want to focus too much on posts like this or make them too frequent as it’s often overly myopic to do so, but thought it’d be worthwhile sharing. In the chart below in region (A) the SPY has recently…

I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Short Yen Trade a Decent Opportunity with Clearly Defined Risk Paramters?

We’ve commented over the past few months one time about the Yen increasingly looking like a decent short opportunity. That said, it wasn’t yet clear the technical set-up was in place to actually execute the trade with any conviction. This…

Yesterday the VIX crossed below 14 and closed below that threshold for the first time in over a year. It’s done this (i.e., close below 14 for the first time in over a year) only two other times in history…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register