SPX Hasn’t Registered Many Positive Days Recently…Does This Suggest Anything about the Future?
If down today, the SPX will have been up only 35% of the trailing 20 trading days. Through history, the market goes up ~55% of the time on any given day. Regardless, the chart below shows other periods since the…...
Sensex Near a Break Out From Three Year Consolidation Pattern
For those that would like additional background on this topic, please refer to our earlier post on the subject. Otherwise, in the chart below, the Sensex appears to be attempting a break-out from a three-year flag/consolidation pattern. As of yet, NO…...
If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration
First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...
Shanghai Composite Faces 20 Year Support Line; Would a Break Below Even be Relevant?
Chart below shows the SSEC is approaching 20-year support line (1). Presumably this line is very important from a technical standpoint. One would, upon first glance, assume that a break below it would usher in very bad things for the…...
Safe-Haven Assets Breaking Down as Risk Assets Breaking Out
Global safe-haven assets appear to be breaking down from bearish ascending wedge patterns. Global risk assets appear to be breaking out above trend-line resistance and consolidation zones. Not attempting to editorialize on the strength/weakness of the global economy and what…...
Should the Historical Performance of the Rydex Cash Ratio Data Hold, the SPX Could Continue Pressing Higher
I want to continue reiterating what I believe is the importance of this post and the Rydex Cash Ratio data. In a world of so much information and noise, it is one of the most cogent arguments for a certain,…...
Did Technicals Offer One Edge Heading into CMG’s Recent EPS?
The chart that follows shows how similar the patterns in CMG and SBUX have been of late. If the patterns hold, SBUX could decline post EPS tonight like CMG did last week, touching its 38.2% Fib retracement support in the low…...
USD at a 2 Year High…What now for the Currency & Global Risk Assets?
On July 13 we asked if the USD was about to begin running into trouble given that it was about to register a two-year closing price high. We asked this question because somewhat counter-intuitively, when the USD has been printing…...
SPX’s Trend Not Yet Congruent with a Bear Market
The SPX’s 12 month moving average (MA) continues to exhibit a somewhat positive bias and slope as the green arrow in the chart below suggests. This is in contrast to the position of the same MA as the beginning of…...
Next Stop for Gold Either $3,000 or $1,100
Gold’s technical set-up is very interesting. The metal, given its technical posture, is likely in front of an imminently big move either higher or lower (that’s not much help, eh?). What follows hopefully clarifies how to know when the metal’s next…...