Carry On
Because there’s nothing to see in the Shiller P/E chart below. We are pressing incredibly important statistical boundaries for U.S. equity valuations at the current moment and valuations have exceeded their current level of ~24x only 5x in history, all…...
Japan Update
Last week we had a detailed Japan-related update with fresh thoughts on the Yen and Nikkei. We suggested executing a short on the Yen. We withheld conviction on the Nikkei but highlighted the potential for the index to decline ~20%…...
Silver Analog Update
Here’s how our thinking on silver has evolved over the past year: 12/2/12 (Silver = ~$34) “We would suggest being short the metal given the resistance at hand.” “If silver can’t exhibit some bullishness very quickly, I’d be inclined to…...
Solar Stocks No Longer Materially Under-Valued
On 2/19 we asked if solar stocks were “intrinsically cheap”, posing the question in the context of a comparison b/t the path the TAN ETF had taken off its 2008 bubble highs to other bubble collapses in history. At the time,…...
Technical Opportunities Come in Different Shapes and Sizes
This one comes in the shape of Bsquare. BSQR presented a few different ways on a weekly basis below. It appears to be breaking out from a multi-year flag/triangle b/t lines (1) and (2). This comes on some material cost…...
Multi-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result, the Nikkei sustained strength)…....
15-Year Flag Pattern Ending in This Stock
On 10/11 we introduced IG when it was at $2.03. We noted it was working on what appeared to be a break-out from a ~15-year flag/triangle pattern. At the time of the first post the break-out hadn’t happened yet. As…...
Additional Details to Build on Yesterday’s Cycle Analysis Post
Yesterday we updated a cycle analysis post originally conducted in mid-August 2012. While the original post from mid-August 2012 suggested the DJIA would be up with 91% probability one year forward (i.e., into mid-August 2013) with a sizable median expected…...
Revisiting Last Year’s Analysis that Foresaw the Rally of 2013 and What it Says about the Future
One of the better pieces of analytical work I’ve done on this site since launching it is this piece from last August. That analysis showed that during 2Q12 the DJIA’s weekly YoY went to >20% in a quarter after being…...
Random Long Opportunity of the Day
RNO is plotted on a daily basis below. This one is a coal-focused MLP. Not something you see all the time. This has been one strike against it since it came public in 2010. The second strike against it is…...