Potential for Sustained Yuan Weakness Likely Signals End of 20-Year Global Economic Paradigm, Nascent Beginnings of New One
The Chinese Yuan, and all of its concomitant strength, was likely the most important global macro asset of the past 20 years, 1994 to present day. It effectively defined a global economic paradigm with the following implications for the West…...
Major Long-Term Swing Resistance for USD
Is now at hand. What the USD does here will have major implications across all macro assets. Most notably, if it can break above, commodities likely continue to tumble and put in new cycle lows along with other sovereign currencies. Truth…...
Global Index Round-Up
In the chart package below I present nine different global stock indices. Just want to provide a quick and dirty look at how various global macro equity indexes appear on a chart-basis right here to frame things up. Not a…...
Attempting to Target Location & Magnitude of Upcoming Nikkei-Related Corrections
I thought it would be helpful for position-building to assess when and by how much the Nikkei might correct moving forward, assuming our overall framework and thesis for material additional upside is correct. Making the second assumption that we are…...
An Enduring Love Affair
My historical penchant for an undying love toward TIVO, both its chart pattern and fundamentals, has been well documented on this site. However, having first identified it on the site almost two years ago with nothing but a torpid, relentlessly weak stock…...
As Self-Explanatory as Any Chart Pattern Could Be
I apologize for the lag time on posting this ascending triangle break-out because I identified IPGP in early February and put it on my radar at that point in time as a major buy per it’s very bullish chart pattern…...
Cap-Weighted (Topix), Not Price (Nikkei), to Lead way in Japan
Moving forward, I believe various market-cap weighted Topix indexes will out-perform the price-weighted Nikkei. As such, in an ideal world we’d own the Topix. However, that brings with it complexities. For one, there is no liquid USD-denominated domestic product to express this…...
Japan Update
The BoJ releases its latest monetary policy decision/statement tonight. There has been recent chatter that the BoJ, or at least a small minority of its members, are growing uneasy about Yen weakness and the pressure that is putting on consumers purchasing…...
Long Pairs vs. NZD
On January 29th the Reserve Bank of New Zealand appeared to signal an aggressive shift away from future rate increases, citing a somewhat more uncertain outlook for global growth and inflation being sustained below the low end of their target…...
Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled
In August 2013 we had a very simple pattern-recognition post on the USD that suggested price volatility on the currency index would expand in the near-term. The unique aspect of the post was that we our pattern assessment on the USD was being…...