More Nikkei Short-Termism & Analog Update
After correcting ~250 bps into Wednesday 6/10 of this week, the Nikkei rebounded sharply last night. This transition to strength from weakness over the past day resulted in a ~350 bps swing in the U.S. futures contract’s 10 hour RoC…...
Silver Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
What we’re about to do in this post with silver is highly similar to the analysis we presented on China in early Jul-12 in this post where we suggested the region’s equities, despite Barron’s call for a credit crisis to…...
Where Did All the Equity VOL Go?
Much has been made of late about the absence of domestic equity market VOL; seemingly, much of that VOL, or at least the pretense of it in the financial press, appears to be focused on global sovereign debt instead. I decided…...
Yen Has Reached Multi-Decade Support
In the monthly chart below the Japanese Yen has reached multi-decade support lines (1) and (2) after breaking down in the past two weeks from the bearish-looking flag/consolidation pattern we had recently highlighted in this post. Line (2) dates to…...
Clubber Lang May Finally Be Ready to Fight
On 7/29/14 we highlighted Mr. T as an increasingly attractive long. At the time we didn’t openly advocate an immediate position in the name, but said the following: “Would look to purchase T on a break-out this week assuming it…...
Continue to Favor Telco Equipment & With It a New Long Idea in the Industry
Late last year on 12/23 we had a post that suggested the DJ Telco Equipment Index would be a source of relative out-performance vs. the SPX in 2015. Our proxy for that call, the IGN ETF, has delivered +725 bps…...
Consolidation of Important FX Cross Nearing Conclusion
We’ve discussed the prospects for and likelihood of Yen weakness going back to summer 2012 and our general belief here has been a simple one: so long as reflation is and remains the core pillar of Abenomics, so too must the…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 2)
I wanted to build off the simple short-termist statistical analysis on the Nikkei posted earlier today with a similar analog/technical round-up on the index as well. What we’re trying to do today is tie our short-term views on the index…...
Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 1)
As of Wednesday 5/6 the USD-denominated, CME-listed Nikkei futures contract (NKc1) had been down 8 of 10 days. We can’t run the same analysis on the actual Nikkei index itself because Japanese markets were closed on 4/29 and 5/4-5/6, or four…...
Analog Update
Below is a quick update to our recent pivot point analog post on the Nikkei a few weeks ago in which we outlined our belief that the BoJ was unlikely to expand the scope of its QE program at its next…...