Relative Industry & Associated Constituent Set-Ups
In the context of “needing” equity exposure, I present below a handful of relative industry set-ups that I find technically interesting. To reiterate, these are relative, not absolute industry out-performance ideas. In the event of major equity downside, consider them…
DB: The Great Counter-Party Unwind Cometh?
DB – the German-traded shares – now sit at 25-yr support with this morning’s ~5% decline baked into the cake. As the health of this behemoth appears increasingly tenuous, we must remind ourselves that DB holds anywhere from ~$40-$50 trillion…
Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work
I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…
Japan Chart Dump
I continue to believe, as crazy as it sounds, that the Nikkei might round-trip its 30-yr decline from 40K in 1989 by getting back to that level either this or next year. I’ve outlined the case for this scenario two…
Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture
In early 2016 amid the global commodity/EM crash the ratio of crude oil vs. gold reached a historic, ~135-yr low, per the chart below. However, per the falling resistance in the monthly chart above, as well as the more detailed…
Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely
In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound. Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...
Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History
Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...
Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History
The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC. That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…
Long Rates, Short Equities?
One of the worst patterns one can ever find is the kind seen on the USD in the late 90s… Three distinct pushes higher over the course of a few years with declining RSI into a H&S type of top…...
Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold
Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...