Systematic Models Signaling Long or Short Right Here?

Close, but no cigar on the short signal. Only 9% in incremental complacency and we’ll get there on the systematic model. Probably down to about two-four trading days in terms of time. After that, we need to see volatility (choppy…...

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Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31

Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31

All the way back on 5/31 we highlighted the potential for European financials to begin outperforming their U.S. counterparts, with this chart justifying the rational in that post. In that post we commented as follows: Ostensibly, such out-performance (of Euro…

GME's Business Model and Stock Price Appear to be in Terminal Decline

GME’s Business Model and Stock Price Appear to be in Terminal Decline

We’ll limit the commentary in this post as our thoughts are clearly outlined in the chart below (which we produced yesterday – GME reported EPS this morning), but broadly speaking, we think the prospects for this company’s business model and…

Despite Potential for Longer-Term Declines, 10 and 30 Yr UST Prices Approaching Near-Term Support and Could Bounce

Despite Potential for Longer-Term Declines, 10 and 30 Yr UST Prices Approaching Near-Term Support and Could Bounce

We made the case a month ago that the secular bond bull in USTs was likely nearing its end. Since then, yields on the 10 Yr have risen 25%, as we pointed out yesterday. As the monthly charts of 10 and…

If the Dow Closes above 12,982 this Week, Data Back to 1896 Says There’s a 91% Chance it Will Be Higher in a Year by 15% (Median Gain, 63 Examples)

Pretty incredible analysis and statistically in-line with what I’ve noted recently – when the market’s price momentum, as gauged by its one year RoC / YoY is surging as much as it currently is (+22% this week) it typically means you’re in…...

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With 10 Yr Rates 25% Higher Since our Original Post, Were We Correct to Suggest on 7/17 that the Secular Bond Bull Was Nearing its End?

With 10 Yr Rates 25% Higher Since our Original Post, Were We Correct to Suggest on 7/17 that the Secular Bond Bull Was Nearing its End?

On July 17 we noted in a post that we believed the days of yield declines in UST securities was likely near an end. And we meant from a secular standpoint, not a cyclical one. We based this view on an…

Hedge Fund Legends Love Gold Again…Should They?

Add gold to the list of things that remain epic-ly confusing. Watching this metal (and silver and everything else) is like watching paint dry. When will the next big move happen? If you refer back to our last post on…...

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Recent SPX Rally Has Taken it Up to Falling Resistance

Recent SPX Rally Has Taken it Up to Falling Resistance

Prior to the market’s ~50 bps reversal lower into the close today we put up a post re: negative divergences b/t prices and momentum in the SPY 60 min chart, suggesting that in the very near-term, such divergences suggested a…

Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY

Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY

Never want to focus too much on posts like this or make them too frequent as it’s often overly myopic to do so, but thought it’d be worthwhile sharing. In the chart below in region (A) the SPY has recently…

Potential Set-Up for Equities into Jackson Hole, Germany’s Constitutional Court Ruling on the ESM 9/12 and the Fed Meeting Concluding 9/13

I hope you’ve picked up on my tone becoming less bullish in the near-term. I’ve not become bearish, but I have become less sanguine about the potential for the market to rally at escape velocity speed in the near-term. In…...

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