Can Gold Rally Without Commodities in General Also Participating?
Short answer: yes. Below I’ve shown all of gold’s trough to peak rallies dating back to the early 70s, or when Nixon abandoned the gold standard. What you’ll find is that out of six major cyclical or secular rallies in gold’s history,…...
Multi-Decade Break-outs in Gold vs. Various Industrial Commodities Signals Major Monetary System Change Afoot
Proportional end demand by the industrial sector is exceedingly larger for crude (all), copper (all) and silver (~50%) vs. gold (~10%-15%). Keep the above in mind when looking at the three charts below which plot ratios of gold vs. all three aforementioned…...
Should History Hold, USDMXN at Multi-Decade Channel Resistance Signals Potential for Pivot Higher in Risk Assets, Inflation
In the first chart below I show USDMXN (USD vs. Peso). For nearly two decades back to the latter part of the 90s USDMXN has traveled in an upward-sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2). Over time it has reached…...
Gold’s 99.8th Percentile Event Last Week Confirms New, Sustained Bull Market
On 12/17/15 in this post we began stressing the likelihood of a new, emerging macro thematic positing the likelihood of a favorable divergence in gold-specific fortunes vs. other commodities moving forward. At the time of that original post the ratio of gold vs…....
Gold’s Moment of Clarity
I believe the work I’ve done on gold over the past year is arguably the best I’ve ever done on this site, both in terms of quality and how comprehensive it’s been. I stand by that even should the conclusions from…...
Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress
In the first chart below I show a scatter plot of the weekly returns in the trade-weighted USD (USTWBROA; y-axis) vs. gold (x-axis) dating back 20 years into 1995. The red dot is this week’s data point. Note that this…...
Gold’s Cycle Low Is In; The Only Question is the Path, Duration & Magnitude of Upside that Follows
On 9/29/15 I put together a detailed post on what appeared to be the an imminent break-out b/t 30-yr (TYX) and 10-yr (TNX) U.S. treasury rates. While I understand most think of the curve steepening vs. flattening in terms of 10s2s,…...
Silver’s Meridian Line Rests a Good Deal Lower
Per nearly 50 years of history, silver’s meridian line, or line (1) support in the chart below, rests ~30% lower at ~$10. All of silver’s major pivots have came at this line. It consolidated its early 70s ramp in the…...
USD Peaking vs. Commodities, Gold Breaking Out vs. Commodities
In the chart below note the CRB Index, though well into its breach, at least appears to be bottoming on a relative basis vs. the USD, as the ratio b/t the two reaches ~30 year support. There’s a little bit…...
How & Why The Chinese Are Using Comex to Crush Paper Gold Prices While Simultaneously Laying the Groundwork for CNH to Become the World’s Next Reserve Currency
ZH has had much good commentary in recent months on the explosion in Comex open interest in gold (GC) relative to the amount of registered/deliverable physical held in related vaults, noting as recently as late NOV that the ratio had just…...