How & Why The Chinese Are Using Comex to Crush Paper Gold Prices While Simultaneously Laying the Groundwork for CNH to Become the World’s Next Reserve Currency
ZH has had much good commentary in recent months on the explosion in Comex open interest in gold (GC) relative to the amount of registered/deliverable physical held in related vaults, noting as recently as late NOV that the ratio had just…...
War Machine
Somebody is going to have to fire up the war machine to prevent deflation (crude) from accelerating (declining) in the near-term. Absent that, dramatic, near-term cuts in global oil output are needed. Per the below, the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main…...
CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign
The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...
How’s It Going Down?
As I ponder where the world stands from a macro/market cycle standpoint I’m reminded of one of my favorite rappers in the halcyon years of being a teenager in rural Corry, PA, DMX, and the best track that came off his debut album, It’s…...
Commodities/EMs Likely Near a Bottom
The operative word here is near. In the chart below the CRB Index is fast approaching long-term support on a monthly basis. Support dates back to the 1999 and 2002 lows for commodities. In addition, the ratio of crude vs. gold…...
Recent Chinese Panic Could be First Clouds of Gathering Storm in Emerging Market Equities
I believe the recent panic in China might merely be the first set of clouds in what is to be a gathering storm that will hit EM equities. I say this because of the extremely bearish set up in anything EM-related that I…...
Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013
Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there, I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...
Potential for Sustained Yuan Weakness Likely Signals End of 20-Year Global Economic Paradigm, Nascent Beginnings of New One
The Chinese Yuan, and all of its concomitant strength, was likely the most important global macro asset of the past 20 years, 1994 to present day. It effectively defined a global economic paradigm with the following implications for the West…...
Global Index Round-Up
In the chart package below I present nine different global stock indices. Just want to provide a quick and dirty look at how various global macro equity indexes appear on a chart-basis right here to frame things up. Not a…...
Major SSEC Top Likely in Place with Potential for Index to Breach 2014 Lows
I think we did a fair amount of solid work on the SSEC going back to 2012 that suggested the index, far from being crash-prone as Barron’s was then suggesting, was much more apt to enjoy some type of strong…...