What Can Market Internals Tell Us About the Current U.S. Equity Sell-off?
If the selling is to continue, it likely does so until the 10 day MA of the ratio of NYSE 52 week lows vs. highs reaches the high teens in the chart below. As of right now, per the red…...
Will Emerging Market Underperformance Ever Cease?
I’ve been very mute on the topic of EMs for most of the site’s history. The only topic of conversation that has been seen on these pages has revolved around the idea that the decade long bull market in commodities…...
Is the Recent Increase in Rates Sustainable?
I believe it is. As we pointed out last week in this post, the ratio of the SPX vs. TYX was suggested a large and imminent move in one of two asset classes – either the SPX or rates. Turns…...
Prospect of Consolidation Could Support Out-Performance of this Industry
In the recent past there’s been some noise in the beleaguered publishing/media industry re: consolidation/M&A. Just last week GCI announced they’d pay a ~30% premium to acquire the media assets of BLC. On Friday, TWC shares rose by ~9% on…...
Can Markets & Cycles Really be Timed?
I’ll get to the point – this is probably the best market timing tool I have ever seen or developed. More importantly, it’s the simplest. It’s something you can use on your own into perpetuity with a single, easy spreadsheet…...
Does Valuation Matter and if so, When from a Historical Cycle Standpoint?
I’ve done a few posts over the past few months on why this level of the Shiller P/E is so important. In a nutshell – this level of valuation historically acts as a switch either turning off more upside and…...
Analog Update
This post is one giant analog dump. As it stands, I continue to see very little worth doing right now across financial markets. This suggests to me markets are in a place that rewards sitting and observing as the next…...
SPX Technical Update
When we were still communicating work via email, one of the earliest (first?) charts I believe I sent was of the SPX on a daily closing basis back to 2007/2008 where I depicted what I believed to be the index’s…...
Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?
In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance as it runs…...
Another Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Rise
As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and then correcting. With the above in…...