IBEX Faces Material Falling Resistance; Long-Term Bear Market to Resume?
In the chart below Spain’s IBEX faces long-term falling resistance line (1), after rallying ~30% off support line (2). If line (2) were ever to give way as support, line (3), which runs parallel to line (1) and forms a…
Long Gone from the Headlines, Be Prepared for This Country to Heat up Again
The chart below shows the Greece General Share Index. Note the well-behaved downward-sloping channel that it’s traded in since 2006. Large sell-offs occur at the top of the channel and large rallies at the bottom. The global equity bottom in…...
After a 50% Rally in the DAX Barron’s Wants us to ‘Buy Europe’; How Timely is that Call?
Throughout 2012, every time we saw a 5%-10% correction, we heard the “CRASH!” sirens going off. As we pointed out here during the last such correction into November, the crash had already happened, but it was in 2011 when nobody…
Working Thesis for 2013
Let’s just get this out of the way right up front – I was completely,unequivocally wrong to pivot to the “not-bullish / mildly bearish” camp late last week. I think it’s quite clear that the combination of Monday’s ~25 pt…
Time to Buy This Euro Financial
Three charts below: 1) Euro – weekly: breaking out above trend-line resistance 2) Ratio – DJ Euro Financials Index vs. SPX – weekly: breaking out above trend-line resistance 3) NBG – weekly: sits atop important support line (1) and is…...
Euro Financials Have Beat the SPX by 30% Since Summer, Now What?
The chart below plots the ratio of the DJ Euro Financials Index vs. SPX This ratio has risen by ~30% since this summer after bottoming along line (3). For some background on why Euro-centric has out-performed U.S.-centric in recent months,…...
BBY Down 22% Since our Bearish Post on 7/12 Despite 5% Rally in SPX Over Same Period; Much More Downside in BBY Likely
Though the post had been pass-word protected up until today, we had a rather bearish post on BBY all the way back on July 12th where we suggested the stock could trade much, much lower from its price at the…
The Case for Euro Financials Out-Performing the Broader Market Remains Compelling
Here is some background on how we’ve approached this subject in the past here and here. In a nutshell, we’ve been favorably disposed to Euro financials since May and have believed they could out-perform both the broader market and their…...
Any Chance the Draghi Put is Now Priced Into the Euro & Corresponding Risk Assets in the Near-Term?
All the way back on July 10th we highlighted the fact that the Euro sat on very critical support levels when it stood at ~1.21, some 600 bps lower than the current ~1.29. We noted that if one were risk-asset bullish…
This European Bank Could Provide Clues to the Next Big Move in Broader Risk Appetite
The chart below reflects that shares of NBG are caught in a tight consolidation pattern between lines (1) and (2). And though NBG trades in the low single digits now, we still believe its shares carry a good deal of…...