Is it Too Late to Short the Yen?

Is it Too Late to Short the Yen?

Not in my mind. My earlier post today on the Nikkei/Yen showed that their current respective 26 week RoC is as positive/negative (most upper-left) as it’s ever been. As I pointed out, the only time in history where the scatter-plot…...

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Something Major is Afoot in Japan

Something Major is Afoot in Japan

Scatter of 26 week RoC in NKK vs. Yen. Last two weeks red – most upper left print in data set. Other prints in this area of the quadrant were Oct-Dec 95 as NKK was printing 10300-10400 – had ~6-8…...

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Quick Global Macro Overview

Quick Global Macro Overview

The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...

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Is Gold Playing Catch up to the Yen and is its Fair Value $1,200?

Is Gold Playing Catch up to the Yen and is its Fair Value $1,200?

Here’s the original post on this subject matter. We noted that since the early 2000s the gold had tended to lead the Yen. Deviations resulted in the Yen rallying or selling hard to catch up with gold. We also alluded…...

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Potential for Pound to Fall 20% Against the USD?

Potential for Pound to Fall 20% Against the USD?

The Pound has traded in a very well defined and behaved downward sloping channel against the USD for nearly a quarter century b/t lines (1) and (2) below. The only time this was not the case was during the global…

Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?

Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?

Our view is that the Nikkei has out-performed so much since later 2012 because of a technical set-up that was in place in the chart below. In that set-up the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei hit material long-term resistance…

Yen Now Near-Term Oversold; Still a Strong Believer in Intermediate & Long-Term Downside Thesis

Yen Now Near-Term Oversold; Still a Strong Believer in Intermediate & Long-Term Downside Thesis

The chart below shows the Yen on a weekly basis. It finds itself at support line (1) and (2). Moreover, in the lower pane, our preferred method of assessing price momentum has reached an oversold status seen only 6x since…...

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Strong Linkage Between the Yen and Gold Breaking Down for First Time in Over a Decade

Strong Linkage Between the Yen and Gold Breaking Down for First Time in Over a Decade

The Yen and gold have tended to broadly trade in lock-step fashion since the latter’s secular lows in the early 2000s. If deviations have appeared in that pattern the Yen has appreciated or depreciated rapidly to make up the difference…

What Impact Might a Break-Down in this Currency Have on Precious Metals?

What Impact Might a Break-Down in this Currency Have on Precious Metals?

In the chart below we plot the Swiss Franc in the upper window and silver in the lower one. Note at the inset that the Franc appears to be breaking below support. If the break-down is real, the Franc could…...

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Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade

Fresh Thoughts on the Ongoing Short Yen Trade

Our first high conviction short Yen trade came on August 14th in this post. At the time the Yen traded at ~1.27 vs. the current ~1.156, a decline of 9%+ over less than four months. Not too bad of a…