USD Update

USD Update

As we pointed out a few weeks ago, the USD continues to attempt a break-out of material long-term resistance. I continue to believe that the monthly USD charts are the best way to gleam informational content on the set-up in…...

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Is the "Reach for Yield" Trade in Riskier Areas Going to Get Hurt by Rising Risk-Free Rates?

Is the “Reach for Yield” Trade in Riskier Areas Going to Get Hurt by Rising Risk-Free Rates?

No matter where you turn you can read about the global “reach for yield” game that’s being played by investors, institutional and retail alike, as they attempt to generate income in riskier asset classes with “higher” yields to circumvent the…...

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More Yen Downside or is 25% in Six Months Enough?

More Yen Downside or is 25% in Six Months Enough?

In the chart below the Yen appears to be breaking straight through critical 23.6% Fib retracement support (1985 lows / 1995 highs). This level, or ~1.00, is also parity level with the USD and a place of numerous important swing…...

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The USD's Next Likely Move is...?

The USD’s Next Likely Move is…?

In the chart below the USD is testing line (2) resistance. This line is important – the USD has spent all but three of the past 27 years below it, excluding 1999-2002. Moreover, the line has sent the USD retreating…...

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Isn't the USD Supposed to Drive PMs?

Isn’t the USD Supposed to Drive PMs?

A few weeks back we plotted the Yen against various PMs in this post and suggested the latter had to “catch down” to the former given 1) they have tended to act as leading indicators for one another’s fair value, with…

Ratio of Yen vs. AUD Breaking 23-Year Support That's Been in Place Since the Nikkei's All-Time 1989 Highs

Ratio of Yen vs. AUD Breaking 23-Year Support That’s Been in Place Since the Nikkei’s All-Time 1989 Highs

In the chart below the ratio of the Yen vs. AUD is breaking 23-year support at the inset. This support has been in place since early 1990 immediately succeeding the Nikkei’s all-time highs in December 1989. So, one has to…

Thoughts on NZD

Thoughts on NZD

In the chart below the NZD and gold have tended to trade in a highly correlated manner for the past few years. More often than not, NZD has acted as a leading indicator for gold, moving north/south before gold does…...

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Could Yen Weakness & Nikkei Strength Continue Unabated?  If so, How Long and to What Degree?

Could Yen Weakness & Nikkei Strength Continue Unabated? If so, How Long and to What Degree?

No crappy editorials on how bad Japan’s economy is and debt this, inflation/deflation that, demographics him, GDP growth her… One chart. The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei has traveled in this upward channel defined by lines (1) and (2)…...

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FX Drives Everything

FX Drives Everything

Want to use this post to reiterate the following: Over-weight sectors/industries that under-performed over the past decade Under-weight sectors/industries/that out-performed over the past decade The latter is most applicable to those sectors/industries heavily impacted, one way or the other, by…...

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What's Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?

What’s Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?

Safe havens – gold, USD, Yen and U.S. bonds. Strangely enough though, so is Nat Gas.  In fact, it’s the greenest thing on the screen. Coincidence when we find that in Cyrpus the government has promised to repay savers enduring…