Triggers to the Next Leg of the Nikkei Run
Last night Japan’s CPI printed +3.6% YoY in June, down from 3.7% YoY in the prior month, but holding steady at near 23 year highs per the chart below. This is key and core to our ongoing Japan/Nikkei thesis –…...
PM/FX Crossroads
Fairly simple chart today with fairly straightforward conclusions. Below you’ll find that gold and the USD are at critical crossroads with the former/latter facing two-year resistance/support. The USDs chart is particularly intriguing to the extent that the support line in…...
24-Year Support at Hand for This Ratio
The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is at 24-year support line (1) below. Additionally, line (2) support is at hand. I would note that line (1) was not hit in May when the Nikkei peaked at 16K. Line (1)…...
Multi-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result, the Nikkei sustained strength)…....
Silver Update
On 9/16 we noted the USD was breaking 30 month support on the heels of Larry Summer’s announced withdrawal from the race to replace Bernanke. We suggested this could be a good, corroborative signal to our bullish, long-term silver thesis. As…...
USD Breaking Below 30 Month Support
The USD bottomed in April 2011; silver peaked at the same time at its decade-long high of $50. Since then the USD has been in an uptrend defined by line (1) support; silver has been in a downtrend defined by…...
Silver’s Current Decline in the Context of Our Longer-Term Thesis
Amazingly, given all the commentary we’ve had on silver via email and phone conversations, there hasn’t been an official updated post on the PM since April. Most, if not all of the reason for this, is the fact that my…...
USD Price Volatility Likely to Expand in Near-Term
The USD’s 52 week RoC is consolidating into a triangle that looks very close to ending, per the image on the right. Last Aug the USD closed at ~81.2 and ~80 in Sep, which puts your current and prospective 52…...
USD At a Critical Juncture
The USD remains at a critical juncture. Thus far, the bullish premonitions we had been calling for over the past year have failed to materialize. Instead, the USD has largely painted a sideways line. As it currently stands, the currency…...
Incremental Thoughts on the “Reach for Yield” Trade
This is an update to our post last week discussing the potential risks associated with the global investment community’s “reach for yield” if/when risk-free rates began to rise. In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Yen…...