Major Long-Term Swing Resistance for USD
Is now at hand. What the USD does here will have major implications across all macro assets. Most notably, if it can break above, commodities likely continue to tumble and put in new cycle lows along with other sovereign currencies. Truth…...
Japan Update
The BoJ releases its latest monetary policy decision/statement tonight. There has been recent chatter that the BoJ, or at least a small minority of its members, are growing uneasy about Yen weakness and the pressure that is putting on consumers purchasing…...
Long Pairs vs. NZD
On January 29th the Reserve Bank of New Zealand appeared to signal an aggressive shift away from future rate increases, citing a somewhat more uncertain outlook for global growth and inflation being sustained below the low end of their target…...
Price Momentum in U.S. Equities is Coiled
In August 2013 we had a very simple pattern-recognition post on the USD that suggested price volatility on the currency index would expand in the near-term. The unique aspect of the post was that we our pattern assessment on the USD was being…...
Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?
In the chart below you’ll find 30 year US treasury bond prices. For the past ~30 years those prices have traveled within an upward sloping channel as yields have continuously fallen, b/t lines (1) and (2). The recent plunge in…...
Driver/Coincidental of Gold Approaching Long-Term Support
In our 2015 working thesis we laid out the case for additional commodity downside, notably in copper and crude. We also highlighted gold and suggested that it had the best looking / most bullish pattern and had the best chance…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Critical Area for Yen/Nikkei
I have an ultra long-term monthly Yen chart (inverted) coupled with an equally short-term 60-min Nikkei chart below. The Yen, +/- a point or two, is basically at critical long-term support pointed out just recently. That support is the combo of l0ng-term lines…...
Yen/USD Cross Approaching Material Long-Term Resistance
In the chart below the Yen is reaching material long-term resistance at lines (1) and (2). In addition, its 61.8% Fib retracement level (3) formed off the 1998 highs / 2011 lows in the cross comes into play at the…...
Nikkei Granularity & Short-Termism
Don’t want to get too cute here because the last thing I want to do is to get excessively myopic about a few % correction from recent highs given the potential upside move to ~35k-45K I’ve been pontificating about for…...