Characteristics of PMs Today Increasingly Resemble that of SSEC in 2013, DJI in 1942
All the way back in July 2013 we began building a case for being long the SSEC even as Barron’s was then calling for the re-emergence of a crisis in the region. Arguably the most important pillar of our long thesis…...
Nikkei Back Above Critical Support
On the 60 min chart of USD-denominated Nikkei futures below, the index can be seen to have reclaimed critical support line (1) as of the close of trading yesterday. Upside has continued this AM to solidify that move. Line (1)…...
Equities Will Surpise if Downside Ends Here
I will be very surprised if U.S. equities fail to register new lows in the coming days, despite the consensus view to the contrary. In addition to the logic we laid out in our last post explaining why, below we…...
Nikkei Update
I wanted to update some of my Nikkei work, specifically the analogs comparing the DJI from Feb-26 through its Aug-29 top to the Nikkei from May-13 until current. Rather than spend time reviewing the original logic of why it made…...
Continuing to Toy with Idea that PM Top Not Yet in Place
PMs put in major tops in 2011 and have done nothing but bleed lower since. However, when one considers the magnitude of their run from the early 00s into that top, it’s been very fascinating to see how long the…...
The DJI’s Potentially Ominous Break of Long-Term Trend
Have been discussing 12 mo MAs on U.S. equity indices with some of you recently and their importance in defining cycle inflection points. If we go through the DJI as of July’s close we find that: It has closed > 12 mo…...
Recent Chinese Panic Could be First Clouds of Gathering Storm in Emerging Market Equities
I believe the recent panic in China might merely be the first set of clouds in what is to be a gathering storm that will hit EM equities. I say this because of the extremely bearish set up in anything EM-related that I…...
USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance
Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance. Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978. Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...
Set-Up for Nat Gas Appears Favorable
In the simply chart below of Nat Gas we find that it sits atop trend-line (1) support dating back to 1998. Absent a single, brief breach of this support in 2012, line (1) has acted as a solid launching pad…...
Palladium Decline Appears Set to Continue
About a month ago when palladium stood at $720 we noted in this post that it appeared to be decisively breaking multi-year (since 2010) trend-line support, per this chart. We built incrementally on our original palladium post with this one a…...