The Conundrum that Remains Gold?
With its 2/13/14 close of $1,302 gold managed to close above its 200 day moving average (MA) for the first time since 2/8/13, or for the first time in over a year. Dating back as far as I have daily…...
In the Face of “EM Crisis” Calls, Shenzhen Index to Rally an Additional 20%-35% in 2014
Two weeks ago there was a two day period in which, yet again, the world was ending and there was an imminent EM crisis on the horizon. Apparently, two days of VOL is all it takes to signal the “EM…...
Commodity Rally to be Short-Lived?
We’ve had a few posts on the site about coffee since 2012. These posts have centered around: 1) Coffee’s April 2011 high was a major top, analogous to only a few other such tops in its history 2) Coffee would…...
Analog Update
At this point, the most helpful thing we can probably do is turn to our set of analogs to help us visually understand the world. A) 4th-5h Consecutive Annual Gain B) 4 Yr RoC > 100% for First time in…...
261.8%, 423.6% and 35%
261.8% – the Fib expansion level formed off the DJ Biotech Index’s 2000/2002 high and low, respectively, that the index ascended past in late November at ~1,350-1,400. 423.6% – the Fib expansion level formed off the DJ Biotech Index’s 2000/2002…...
Count the Similarities
As we have highlighted innumerable times on this site over the past six months in the “cycles” category, the similarities b/t the current cycle and where we are in that cycle are incredibly similar to the late 20s and mid…...
The Best is Yet to Come
I’ve become incredibly bullish in terms of my disposition to one’s macro market exposure. I have put up post after post after post on this site over the past six months, and increasingly so as of late, detailing why the…...
Past Six Years of Chinese Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
We made a highly out of consensus call on 7/2/13 suggesting Chinese equities were at a major low. This call was concurrent with Barron’s front page story calling for a renewed credit crisis in the country. That call proved incredibly…...
The Trigger to an Already Stretched Rubber Band?
In early March of this year as the SPX laps its early March 2009 weekly closing low of ~666, it will be up ~175% on a five-year basis. In the past, we’ve only looked at this cycle on a four-year…...
China Analog Update
Wanted to provide a quick update on our previously cited China analog, which builds off the original logic about the region being at a major cyclical low first postulated in early July of this year here. There sure has been…...