Fresh Thoughts on Gold
We’ve done a lot of work on gold on the site over the past six months in various posts trying to determine two important things: 1) Was/is gold a “bubble”? and 2) If the answer to #1 above is “yes”,…...
Strong Linkage Between the Yen and Gold Breaking Down for First Time in Over a Decade
The Yen and gold have tended to broadly trade in lock-step fashion since the latter’s secular lows in the early 2000s. If deviations have appeared in that pattern the Yen has appreciated or depreciated rapidly to make up the difference…
PMs, Especially Miners, at a Critical Crossroads
I’d say the juncture PMs find themselves at right now is as important as those from their secular bull market beginnings in the early 2000s as well as their global panic lows in late 2008. This is less my opinion…...
After a Brutal January, Gold Miners Approaching Support
The Arca Gold Miners Index is down over 10% thus far into January. Brutal indeed. That said, the index now finds itself at support line (1) below, where swing lows from 2010 and 2012 occurred. As it reaches this support…
Historical Cycle Analysis – What Type is This & Where Are We?
The chart below plots the Dow since the late 1800s and includes its four-year rate-of-change (RoC). Why do I plot the four-year RoC? Through history, bull cycles have lasted 48 months on average, or four years. As such, I thought…...
Equity Analog Update
1987 vs. 2011 Crash Lows “Volatility” Analog 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain Analog (including 1928) 4th & 5th Consecutive Annual Gain Analog (only 1988-1989 vs. 2012-2013)...
Silver Highlights
This post updates our last post on silver from January 11th right here. In that post we said two important things: 1) “…it (silver) will peak out a dollar above current levels on a weekly closing basis at ~$32 (potentially more…...
Surveying the Carnage in AAPL and its Evolving Set-Up
Was happy we could get this call so correct – both the top, how the initial sell-off was not to be bought and just over a week or so ago, the likelihood that the stock’s downside would soon accelerate, as it…...
Put this Stock on Your Radar as the Next Move is Apt to be a Big One
MNST has traded in an upward sloping channel formed by lines (1) and (2) since 2005 in the chart below. Both lines have produced large moves in each respective direction. At the blue inset, it failed at line (1) resistance…...
This Stock Sure Does Look a Lot Like AAPL…right before it Fell 30%
We’re on bubble alert. In the chart below we plot AAPL on a non-log basis over the long-term to highlight its parabolic ramp higher at (A), which began in 2012, presumably what was its “end game” move higher into an…