Dow Going to 17K Before 2013 is Up?
Look at the analog below. The black line is the Dow, 2012-2013YTD. We refrain from revealing what the red line is and why it makes sense to compare it to the black one. However, do they get more compelling than…
Historical Cycle Analysis Update
This post looks at bull market cycle lengths through history. We define length as follows: 1) Cycle begins when Dow YoY goes to positive territory (at least +5%) from negative on a monthly basis 2) Cycle ends when Dow YoY goes…...
A Perennially Poor Market Timing Tool, Why is the Shiller P/E Ratio Critical all of a Sudden?
Take a look at the rolling 10 year average P/E ratio on the SPX below. It current stands at ~22.5x. What do you notice? Why has this level been so important in the context of history? Why is it that…...
Long-Term Meat Product Bull Market Over? Impact to Stocks & Industries?
The first half of this post’s title is not a joke. In the charts below live and feeder cattle have been battling quarter-century, long-term channel resistance over the past two years, having, along with the rest of the commodity group,…...
Is Gold Playing Catch up to the Yen and is its Fair Value $1,200?
Here’s the original post on this subject matter. We noted that since the early 2000s the gold had tended to lead the Yen. Deviations resulted in the Yen rallying or selling hard to catch up with gold. We also alluded…...
More Gold Miner Thoughts
Wanted to update this evolving short set-up with three charts. Each has a similar conclusion and when triangulated, suggests intermediate-term downside of ~25%. Such downside can be captured via a GDX short, via DUST, a 3x inverse ETF on gold…...
Nasdaq is at a 12 Year High, What’s it Mean in the Context of History?
Last week the Nasdaq closed at 3,194. This marked a 12 year high. The index hadn’t notched a 12 year high in 674 weeks, or nearly 13 years. What’s that mean in the context of history? Well, because the Nasdaq…...
Evolving FX and PM Set-Ups
Forgive me for continuing to focus so much attention on the PM space. However, I do tend to think it currently offers very solid risk/reward set-ups and more importantly, the opportunity to make some money on the short side in…...
Might This Stock Double or Triple in as Little as 6 Months?
CUB is sitting on channel support line (1). Also caught in a flag pattern formed by that line and the blue line. Last two times it’s been at channel support and has formed a flag pattern (A and B) and…...
Yen Now Near-Term Oversold; Still a Strong Believer in Intermediate & Long-Term Downside Thesis
The chart below shows the Yen on a weekly basis. It finds itself at support line (1) and (2). Moreover, in the lower pane, our preferred method of assessing price momentum has reached an oversold status seen only 6x since…...