Price Action Suggests Gold Miners in a Down-Trend/Bear Market; Next Stop ~15%-20% Lower?

There aren’t many places to hide these days. Short of bonds, the USD, staples, utilities and bio-techs, it’s tough to find favorable price action in much of anything. This is true too for the Gold Miners Index, presented on a monthly…...

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More Analysis Around the Potential for a Greek Exit / Drachma Reintroduction

A short while back we ran some detailed analysis on historical currency devaluation episodes and suggested that should Greece exit the Euro and reintroduce the Drachma, the time to buy Greek equities on a nominal basis would be at the time of…...

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Outcomes for Equities Here & Contingency Planning for Each Potential Set-Up

I think there are two potential outcomes here: 1) Per the first chart below – the SPX daily – there’s a chance that the move off the late May / early June lows of ~1,280 and the choppy consolidation that then…...

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Ratio of 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST Price at an Important Juncture for Future Direction of Equities

The attached shows that the ratio of the 10 Yr vs. 30 Yr UST price is hitting trend-line support that has been in place since 1986. The first point to make is that it is typically at this line where 10…...

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Based on the Average Historical Outcome, this Very Reliable Indicator Suggests SPX ~1,550 by October

On October 3, 2011 when the SPX closed at 1,100, investors in the Rydex family of funds had nearly $1.60 invested in money market fund vehicles for every $1.00 invested in long or sector-based equity mutual funds. In effect, cash balances…...

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Greek Equities Just Rallied 18%, Now What (How to Play a Euro Exit, if it Happens)?

Last week, Greek equities managed a single week, 18% rally off their lows from the previous week.  NBG was even more impressive, up 50%. Who could have predicted such a massive rebound? Prices could have. As the chart below suggests,…...

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Who's Who of Poor Places to be Long Over Past 12 Years

Who’s Who of Poor Places to be Long Over Past 12 Years

Filtered for the existence of all of the following at any given time dating back to the late 90s: VIX b/t 18.5-25.5 VIX one month RoC > 20% SPX one month RoC < -5% SPX one year RoC < 0%…...

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