This Mystery Asset Looks to Share Two Bubble Tops Strikingly Similar to Silver’s Bubble Tops in 1980 and 2011

  I’m not going to reveal what the top chart is yet as the whole point of this analysis is to clear our mind of biases and facilitate fluid and objective thought outside of the box. The lower chart I…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register

Systematic Models Signaling Long or Short Right Here?

Close, but no cigar on the short signal. Only 9% in incremental complacency and we’ll get there on the systematic model. Probably down to about two-four trading days in terms of time. After that, we need to see volatility (choppy…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Despite Potential for Longer-Term Declines, 10 and 30 Yr UST Prices Approaching Near-Term Support and Could Bounce

Despite Potential for Longer-Term Declines, 10 and 30 Yr UST Prices Approaching Near-Term Support and Could Bounce

We made the case a month ago that the secular bond bull in USTs was likely nearing its end. Since then, yields on the 10 Yr have risen 25%, as we pointed out yesterday. As the monthly charts of 10 and…

If the Dow Closes above 12,982 this Week, Data Back to 1896 Says There’s a 91% Chance it Will Be Higher in a Year by 15% (Median Gain, 63 Examples)

Pretty incredible analysis and statistically in-line with what I’ve noted recently – when the market’s price momentum, as gauged by its one year RoC / YoY is surging as much as it currently is (+22% this week) it typically means you’re in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
With 10 Yr Rates 25% Higher Since our Original Post, Were We Correct to Suggest on 7/17 that the Secular Bond Bull Was Nearing its End?

With 10 Yr Rates 25% Higher Since our Original Post, Were We Correct to Suggest on 7/17 that the Secular Bond Bull Was Nearing its End?

On July 17 we noted in a post that we believed the days of yield declines in UST securities was likely near an end. And we meant from a secular standpoint, not a cyclical one. We based this view on an…

Hedge Fund Legends Love Gold Again…Should They?

Add gold to the list of things that remain epic-ly confusing. Watching this metal (and silver and everything else) is like watching paint dry. When will the next big move happen? If you refer back to our last post on…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Short Yen Trade a Decent Opportunity with Clearly Defined Risk Paramters?

Short Yen Trade a Decent Opportunity with Clearly Defined Risk Paramters?

We’ve commented over the past few months one time about the Yen increasingly looking like a decent short opportunity. That said, it wasn’t yet clear the technical set-up was in place to actually execute the trade with any conviction. This…

Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?

Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?

The chart below shows that commercial hedgers have amassed the largest net long position in the metal since 2004. At the same time, large speculators have amassed one of the largest short positions they’ve ever held over the same period….

The VIX Has Compressed Notably of Late; What about other “Complacency” Indicators?

This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?

Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?

The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…