What Impact Might a Break-Down in this Currency Have on Precious Metals?
In the chart below we plot the Swiss Franc in the upper window and silver in the lower one. Note at the inset that the Franc appears to be breaking below support. If the break-down is real, the Franc could…...
Silver Update
Updated the silver post-bubble collapse analog chart below. It reflects silver @ ~$30.70, it’s current trading price. I’ve also extended price out ~4 weeks into early February. This can be seen by the extension of the red line (dotted). This…...
Gold Miners Update
On 12/4/12 we suggested it was time to be short gold miners in this post. Since then, the index has decline by ~370 bps. Decent, but not stellar, return on the short in a single month. In our view, given…...
Central Banks Have Done an Excellent Job of Back-Stopping Global Risk Appetite
The chart below plots the average path that U.S. secular bear markets (1901-1921; 1929-1942; 1966-1982) have taken through history and compares it to the path the current (presumed) secular bear of 2000-2012. The path of the current had plotted nearly…
As Suggested in October, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint Long Positions Over the Intermediate-Term
In early October when coffee stood at ~160+ we had a rather detailed post explaining why we thought it would continue to disappoint longs over the intermediate-term, despite the fact that it had sold off materially already and commercial players had…...
After a 50% Rally in the DAX Barron’s Wants us to ‘Buy Europe’; How Timely is that Call?
Throughout 2012, every time we saw a 5%-10% correction, we heard the “CRASH!” sirens going off. As we pointed out here during the last such correction into November, the crash had already happened, but it was in 2011 when nobody…
Grains Down Double Digits in a Few Months, Now What?
Here was our original post on grains back in September. In that post we suggested being short some combo of soybeans, wheat and corn. All are down double-digits or are close to being down that much since the post. In…...
Working Thesis for 2013
Let’s just get this out of the way right up front – I was completely,unequivocally wrong to pivot to the “not-bullish / mildly bearish” camp late last week. I think it’s quite clear that the combination of Monday’s ~25 pt…
Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment
This post builds off my previous email today in which I effectively drew a line in the sand and pivoted to the “not bullish / mildly bearish” camp. As I noted in that email, with the Dow down ~340 bps…...
Analog Update
In an email in the week preceding Xmas I noted in the analog below that at point (A) there was a two-day, 175 bps sell-off in the Dow. This sell-off occurred over the days of 12/28/88-1/3/89. Given the way the…...