Current Conditions in AAII Sentiment Survey Have Been Fulfilled only Eight Other Times Since 1987

Always struggle to find much value in the AAII Sentiment Survey data and commentary. That said, the conditions in this week’s survey data have been fulfilled only eight other times in history. Here are the conditions being filtered upon –…...

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Since Credit “Leads”, What’s the Macro Message Coming From Riskier Areas of the Credit Universe?

If credit leads and equity confirms, the message riskier areas of the credit universe are currently sending is far different from the one they were sending through much of 2007 and early 2008 as they deteriorated significantly in front of equity…...

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SPX Breaking Out? Going to Target New All-Time Highs?

Any repeating patterns this summer vs. last fall when the SPX broke out of a choppy consolidation zone following the August mini-crash? Also, any similarities between the rally off the 1987 crash lows and the rally off last August’s mini-crash…...

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After Losing 2/3 of its Value, is There an Emerging Set-up in Cotton?

The chart below shows that the decline thus far off Cotton’s peak price in 2011 is among the worst for a former bubble. At this juncture (~+80 weeks after peak prices) only Silver’s decline off its 1980 top was worse. At the…...

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Relative to Average Path other Assets Have Taken from Bubble Tops, Homebuilders, Despite 135% Rally, Remain Under-Valued

At the end of March 2012 I noted homebuilders appeared very under-valued vs. other bubbles at this juncture of their bubble peak price. I presented the chart below to justify this. Since that original post, the S&P Homebuilder Index has…...

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10 & 30 Yr UST Prices Continue to Battle Long-Term Resistance; Analog to Japan Suggests Days of Yield Declines Near an End

The first charts below include 10 and 30 Yr UST prices. With their strong recent performance, both securities are battling long-term channel resistance dating back 27 years. Historically, per the red shades, this resistance has resulted in periods of declining…...

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This Week’s Price Action in SPX Rare in Context of History (and Very Intermediate-Term Bullish Should History Hold)

This week the SPX was down every single day Monday-Thursday and then wiped out the entirety of those losses on Friday. This has happened only four other times in history dating back to 1928. The other days were 10/26/56, 11/15/57,…...

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Repeating Fundamental & Technical Patterns in India/Bombay Sensex Suggesting a New Up Leg in EM Secular Growth Phase?

Coming into 2012 we figured the year would be up or down big given we had just finished a third straight up year in what was ostensibly a secular bear market, which had happened only one other time in 100…...

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SPX about to Bottom and Rally Sustainably?

According to SentimenTrader even though the SPX was down for a fifth straight day yesterday the VIX was only up ~7.7% over the same period. Dating back to 1990 when the SPX is down for five straight days and the…...

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Charting RIMM’s Recent 50% Drop / The Power of Technicals (Part 2)

Starting now, we’re going to begin a series that shows recurring technical set-ups that offer material profit opportunities in compressed periods of time. In other words, great reward/risk trades. We’ll present these opportunities to folks subscribing to the premium / password-protected content…