Analog Update
Lots of market weakness this week. Crash calls abound and everybody and their brother predicted this 200 bps sell-off last week, don’t ya know? My view on 2014 finally catalyzed recently, having become “unequivocally” bullish the other week. Apparently I…...
Count the Similarities
As we have highlighted innumerable times on this site over the past six months in the “cycles” category, the similarities b/t the current cycle and where we are in that cycle are incredibly similar to the late 20s and mid…...
Greater Than 90% Probability SPX Higher in 2014 with a Median Expected Gain of ~20%, Reaching at Least 2,100
The beauty of the markets is that everything can be empirically tested against history and nothing need be left to subjectivity. And yet and still, everything (or nearly everything) one can ever find from the soothsayers on CNBC, in Barron’s, the…...
Reflections on Lines in the Sand
All the way back on May 28 last year I put up a post titled “Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?“. The Dow stood at ~15,300 at the time, or ~700 bps below its closing high last…...
The Best is Yet to Come
I’ve become incredibly bullish in terms of my disposition to one’s macro market exposure. I have put up post after post after post on this site over the past six months, and increasingly so as of late, detailing why the…...
Past Six Years of Chinese Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
We made a highly out of consensus call on 7/2/13 suggesting Chinese equities were at a major low. This call was concurrent with Barron’s front page story calling for a renewed credit crisis in the country. That call proved incredibly…...
The Trigger to an Already Stretched Rubber Band?
In early March of this year as the SPX laps its early March 2009 weekly closing low of ~666, it will be up ~175% on a five-year basis. In the past, we’ve only looked at this cycle on a four-year…...
Multi-Year Disparity Between SPX Gains and Actual SPX EPS Growth Alarming
I pointed out a few times late last year as it was underway that the YoY in SPX EPS, according to the monthly Shiller data, was in negative territory for seven consecutive months (Sep 2012-March 2013) even as the SPX…...
China Analog Update
Wanted to provide a quick update on our previously cited China analog, which builds off the original logic about the region being at a major cyclical low first postulated in early July of this year here. There sure has been…...
Semis On Deck
Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...