Relative Strength of DJ Investment Services Index at a 20 Year Low
I believe we discussed informally (phone, email, etc.) the possibility that investment services / asset manager-type companies could outperform over the coming months. This thesis and discussion revolved around the following: 1) Potential for a material rally in equities, based…...
In a Down Market and in Only 10 Days, Our Long XLF, Short Regional Bank Spread Trade is up 400+ bps
Since October 5th when we suggested the possibility, the ratio of the KBW Regional Banking Index vs. the XLF financial ETF has declined 420 bps! In other words, our suggestion to long the XLF and short regional banks has generated…
Semis Likely Have More Relative & Absolute Downside Remaining
The chart below plots the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX. Note the ratio doesn’t reach intermediate-term support region (A) until ~3% lower. More material support doesn’t come into play until line (1), some ~15% lower. Additionally, the 52 week…...
As a Group, Coal Appears to be Breaking Out & Could Continue to Out-Perform
For some background on our thoughts on coal, please see these previous posts here and here. Since our original post on the group all the way back on August 9th, the DJ Coal Index has risen 22% vs. only a…
Defining Alpha, FXI Has Out-Performed the SPX by 700+ bps Since We Suggested as Much a Month Ago
On September 7th we had a post detailing our thoughts on FXI and our belief that domestically listed Chinese equities were about to begin a period of out-performance vs. the SPX. In that post we specifically noted the following: “A long…...
On a Relative Basis, Gold Miners Face Resistance
The chart below plots the ratio of Arca Gold Miners Index vs. the SPX. From 2001 to August 2011, the ratio rose to 1.60 from ~0.15. This means gold miners as a group out-performed the SPX by a factor of…
Regional Banks May be Set to Under-Perform Larger Ones
The chart below plots the ratio of the KBW Regional Bank Index vs. the XLF. As it rises, regional banks out-perform; as it falls the XLF out-performs. The ratio is breaking below trend-line support and a multi-year consolidation pattern. That…
Continue to Reiterate that Homebuilders Likely Have More Upside & Out-Performance Left
The chart below plots the post peak price bubble analog we’ve highlighted numerous times before with prices updated through today. The black line is the S&P Homebuilders Index. Our ongoing thesis has been that it will ultimately reach ~50% of…...
GOOG Has ~20% of Additional Out-Performance vs. AAPL
The chart below plots the ratio of AAPL vs. GOOG. As the ratio declines AAPL is under-performing GOOG. The ratio has recently completed a bearish H&S pattern and has broken below support line (1). It’s next major areas of support…
Oil’s Decline Helping our Airline Out-Performance Thesis
We’ve re-visited the case for airlines out-performing two times on this site. Our last post on 9/7 was the catalyst for initiating a long spread trade in the group with a corresponding short in the SPX. On 9/14, we then…...