Miners Appear Poised for Further Out-Performance vs. Gold
The chart below plots the ratio of the Arca Gold Miners Index vs. Gold. As you can see, early in 2012 the ratio hit extremely over-sold territory which has typically led to strong bounces whereby miners out-perform the metal itself…....
A Decade-Long Under-Performer, this Industry Could Soon See that Trend Reverse
First chart is the ratio of the DJ Specialized Consumer Services Index (DJUSCS) vs. SPX. This index is a hodgepodge of sorts but includes education & training companies, which are this post’s focal point as a source of potential out-performance…....
Spread Trade Opportunity in Semis
The chart below plots the ratio of AMD vs. INTC. With AMD’s dramatic decline of late the ratio sits on long-term support line (1). A potential spread trade here would be to go long AMD and short INTC. The trade…...
Continue to Believe that China Can Remain a Source of Out-Performance
Historically we’ve focused this thesis on the idea that such out-performance would come via the SPX. That said, with a little bit more digging, the ratio charts below also suggest that the SSEC can out-perform the companies that have historically…...
Crude May Continue to Under-Perform Other Risk Assets Such as Equities
The chart below plots the ratio of crude oil vs. the SPX. Earlier this year the ratio broke support line (1) which dated all the way back to 1998 – in effect, crude’s nearly 15 year trend of out-performance vs….
More Thoughts & Analysis on the Nikkei & Yen
Here are some background posts on how our thoughts have progressed on the Yen and Nikkei here, here, and as of last week, here. With these posts in mind, we present the Yen and ratio of the DJ Global Index…...
Set-Up in CAD$ Appears Unfavorable; Could Lead to Continued Softness in Crude, Out-Performance in Airlines
We find the set-up in the CAD$ unfavorable, both technically and from a sentiment standpoint. Technically, the FX finds itself facing very stiff resistance region (A) which marks highs dating back to 1972 as well as 2008/2011. At the same…...
If U.S. Bonds are the “Big Short” of the Next Decade, it Likely Means Japanese Equities are the “Big Long”
We got to thinking yesterday and came up with the chart below… It plots the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei against the 10 Yr UST price since 1998, when things really started going “global” with LTCM, the Russian FX…...
The Case for Euro Financials Out-Performing the Broader Market Remains Compelling
Here is some background on how we’ve approached this subject in the past here and here. In a nutshell, we’ve been favorably disposed to Euro financials since May and have believed they could out-perform both the broader market and their…...
Long CREE / Short PANL Spread Trade Up 12% Since September 27th Post
Wanted to update this idea/thesis given the nice pop in CREE today. On September 27th we had a post that noted a spread trade opportunity had emerged in the flat panel/LCD space. That post can be found here and the chart…...