Financials Signaling Sustained Upside in Risk Assets?

Financials Signaling Sustained Upside in Risk Assets?

The chart below shows the ratio of the SPX vs. XLF – when the ratio moves lower, financials out-perform. The ratio is now breaking below support line (1). This is important as every time the ratio has hit line (1) over…

Case for Airlines Out-Performing Continues to Build

All the way back on May 30 we highlighted the emerging case for Airlines sustainably out-performing the SPX. We didn’t take a strong, high conviction stance on this belief, but merely stated the “possibility” for this happening was becoming stronger. At…

Taking a Look at Market Leadership Groups

The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. XLF. When the ratio falls, financials are out-performing the broader market. Since 2010, when the ratio has fallen to line (1) support, it has marked almost perfectly, broader market tops in…...

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This Mystery Asset Looks to Share Two Bubble Tops Strikingly Similar to Silver’s Bubble Tops in 1980 and 2011

  I’m not going to reveal what the top chart is yet as the whole point of this analysis is to clear our mind of biases and facilitate fluid and objective thought outside of the box. The lower chart I…...

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Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31

Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31

All the way back on 5/31 we highlighted the potential for European financials to begin outperforming their U.S. counterparts, with this chart justifying the rational in that post. In that post we commented as follows: Ostensibly, such out-performance (of Euro…

Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?

Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?

The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…

Repeating Pattern in the Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Another Fall 2008 Scenario?

Repeating Pattern in the Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Another Fall 2008 Scenario?

We’ve commented on the ratio of copper vs. gold a few times over the past few months including here and here. The ratio tends to be a good proxy for global economic activity and risk levels. Prior posts have centered around the…

Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007

Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007

The chart below plots the ratio of the 10 Yr UST price vs. the SPX in the top pane and the SPX in the bottom pane. When the ratio b/t the two has approached trend-line (1) since 2007, as it is doing…

Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite

Recent Under-Performance in Small Caps Likely Portends an Inflection Point in Broader Risk Appetite

The 26 week RoC in the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is -768 bps as of yesterday’s close. In the top pane of the chart below we highlight where small caps have under-performed large caps to this degree of greater since…

Time to Pay Attention to the Swiss Franc? Sniffing out More Global CB Intervention? About to Cause a Precious Metals Rally?

First chart is the Swiss Franc alone. Note that it’s approaching long-term support line (1) in the 0.98-0.99 area.  Also note that this is 50% Fib retracement support. Also note that it is along line (1) where, for whatever reason,…...

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