Taking a Look at Market Leadership Groups
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. XLF. When the ratio falls, financials are out-performing the broader market. Since 2010, when the ratio has fallen to line (1) support, it has marked almost perfectly, broader market tops in…...
SPX Price Action from This Monday Resembles that from Other Turning Points Since 2007
Into Monday’s close on 8/20 we put up this post that suggested the statistical aspects of that day’s price action were bearish, and in-line with the statistical characteristics of areas since 2007 that were at, or very close to, major…
Gold & Silver Approaching Resistance as USD Nears Support
In the chart below we plot Gold, Silver and the USD on a weekly basis. Gold and silver are both approaching stiff resistance dating back to their 2011 highs. At the same time, both are nearing the completion of descending…
USD Finally Going to Find Support & Bounce, Hurt Precious Metals in the Process?
We’ve been broadly bearish on the USD since May. We’ve outlined the justification for that stance in various posts in the recnent past here and here. In a nutshell, from a statistical standpoint, history told us that the USD’s recent…
Is The Russell 2000 Now Working on a 1995 Style Break-Out?
Our earliest posts on the R2K were directionally bearish in nature. On 5/30 we suggested the index’s path of least resistance was likely down. A month later on 6/27 we then suggested downside risks remained elevated over the intermediate-term. Neither…...
This Mystery Asset Looks to Share Two Bubble Tops Strikingly Similar to Silver’s Bubble Tops in 1980 and 2011
I’m not going to reveal what the top chart is yet as the whole point of this analysis is to clear our mind of biases and facilitate fluid and objective thought outside of the box. The lower chart I…...
Aussie $ Appears to be Fading at Important Test of Resistance
Chart below is of the Aussie $. In May it broke down from a long-term, bearish ascending wedge pattern formed by lines (1) and (2). Line (1) ran across its highs from 1995 onward while line (2) ran underneath its…
Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31
All the way back on 5/31 we highlighted the potential for European financials to begin outperforming their U.S. counterparts, with this chart justifying the rational in that post. In that post we commented as follows: Ostensibly, such out-performance (of Euro…
GME’s Business Model and Stock Price Appear to be in Terminal Decline
We’ll limit the commentary in this post as our thoughts are clearly outlined in the chart below (which we produced yesterday – GME reported EPS this morning), but broadly speaking, we think the prospects for this company’s business model and…
Despite Potential for Longer-Term Declines, 10 and 30 Yr UST Prices Approaching Near-Term Support and Could Bounce
We made the case a month ago that the secular bond bull in USTs was likely nearing its end. Since then, yields on the 10 Yr have risen 25%, as we pointed out yesterday. As the monthly charts of 10 and…