Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?
In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance as it runs…...
Another Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Rise
As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and then correcting. With the above in…...
Solar Stock Update
On February 19th we had a post that asked if solar stocks were intrinsically cheap. By “intrinsically cheap” we meant relative to the average and worst paths that other bubbles, after they had collapsed, had taken off their-all time highs…....
Market’s Zero-Sum Nature Should Continue to Work in Favor of this Former High-Flying Industry
In September of last year we had a post suggesting the market is thematic and that every dog tends to have its day in the sun and that old-line technology stocks were about to begin sun-bathing. That belief was largely…...
Incremental Thoughts on the “Reach for Yield” Trade
This is an update to our post last week discussing the potential risks associated with the global investment community’s “reach for yield” if/when risk-free rates began to rise. In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Yen…...
USD Update
As we pointed out a few weeks ago, the USD continues to attempt a break-out of material long-term resistance. I continue to believe that the monthly USD charts are the best way to gleam informational content on the set-up in…...
Is the Nikkei’s Run of Material Out-Performance vs. Other Global Indices Over or is There More Remaining?
The ratio of the DJ World Stock Index vs. Nikkei is plotted below. It was this ratio, among other things, which helped get us very bullish on the index from an execution standpoint, in 2012, in our humble opinion, well…...
Attractive Long Opportunities in this Industry Group
I favor some financial services / asset managers based on the bullish looking charts below. LM and SCHW appear the most bullish and as if they have broken out into areas that portend materially more upside. Broadly speaking, given the…...
Thoughts on the Nikkei in Real Terms
We’ve had some commentary recently about looking at the Nikkei in real terms. By real we meant taking the nominal value of the Nikkei and dividing by 10 Yr UST yields as a proxy for CPI. 10 Yr UST yields…...
Butter, Meet Hot Knife
Coming into this week the Nikkei faced incredibly important and formidable resistance. As a refresh that resistance included: A falling trend-line off the 1989 and 2007 highs – the most important tops in the index’s history 61.8% Fib retracement resistance,…