Year 6
We’ve discussed the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain paradigm and analog incessantly over the past year. With the Dow up 18% YTD and a ~30 trading days left in the year, unless something shockingly exogenous occurs, 2013 is going to go…...
China Analog Update
We called for a major bottom in Chinese equities in early July, concurrent with Barron’s call for a renewed credit crisis in the region. Our call was simple and objective – at the time > 80% of the SSEC’s trailing…...
Historical Parallels of Current Cycle Beginning to Narrow
If there’s one unrelenting cycle paradigm we’ve used to think about the market for the past year it’s been the 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog. The relevance of that historical paradigm for today’s cycle is the fact that 2012/2013 also…...
Heads Will Roll
Our first MSFT-centric post was 7/22. These were the two most important items of note in that bullish post: “…now is likely a very opportune time to begin adding to MSFT shares as they could very well be on their…...
Carry On
Because there’s nothing to see in the Shiller P/E chart below. We are pressing incredibly important statistical boundaries for U.S. equity valuations at the current moment and valuations have exceeded their current level of ~24x only 5x in history, all…...
Japan Update
Last week we had a detailed Japan-related update with fresh thoughts on the Yen and Nikkei. We suggested executing a short on the Yen. We withheld conviction on the Nikkei but highlighted the potential for the index to decline ~20%…...
Silver Analog Update
Here’s how our thinking on silver has evolved over the past year: 12/2/12 (Silver = ~$34) “We would suggest being short the metal given the resistance at hand.” “If silver can’t exhibit some bullishness very quickly, I’d be inclined to…...
Solar Stocks No Longer Materially Under-Valued
On 2/19 we asked if solar stocks were “intrinsically cheap”, posing the question in the context of a comparison b/t the path the TAN ETF had taken off its 2008 bubble highs to other bubble collapses in history. At the time,…...
Technical Opportunities Come in Different Shapes and Sizes
This one comes in the shape of Bsquare. BSQR presented a few different ways on a weekly basis below. It appears to be breaking out from a multi-year flag/triangle b/t lines (1) and (2). This comes on some material cost…...
Multi-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result, the Nikkei sustained strength)…....