Commodities/EMs Likely Near a Bottom
The operative word here is near. In the chart below the CRB Index is fast approaching long-term support on a monthly basis. Support dates back to the 1999 and 2002 lows for commodities. In addition, the ratio of crude vs. gold…...
Nikkei Back Above Critical Support
On the 60 min chart of USD-denominated Nikkei futures below, the index can be seen to have reclaimed critical support line (1) as of the close of trading yesterday. Upside has continued this AM to solidify that move. Line (1)…...
Equities Will Surpise if Downside Ends Here
I will be very surprised if U.S. equities fail to register new lows in the coming days, despite the consensus view to the contrary. In addition to the logic we laid out in our last post explaining why, below we…...
Echoes of 1914
A month ago on 7/23 we used this post to highlight the ominously fascinating cycle similarities b/t the DJI circa 1904-1914 and emerging markets, via EEM, 2004-current; we used the chart below and steps (1)-(10) to set those similarities off in deep…...
Nikkei Update
I wanted to update some of my Nikkei work, specifically the analogs comparing the DJI from Feb-26 through its Aug-29 top to the Nikkei from May-13 until current. Rather than spend time reviewing the original logic of why it made…...
Continuing to Toy with Idea that PM Top Not Yet in Place
PMs put in major tops in 2011 and have done nothing but bleed lower since. However, when one considers the magnitude of their run from the early 00s into that top, it’s been very fascinating to see how long the…...
Fed to Engineer Market “Shock” in August to Avert September Rate Hike?
An inverted DJI chart (to force our minds to re-think appearances) seems to be officially breaking out (down) from its bullish (bearish) pattern that’s developed over the past year at the inset. In doing so it also is breaking out (down)…...
Crude’s Technicals Point To Additional Downside
In the chart below I present crude on a monthly HLC and closing basis. Note that as of August crude has broken back into a long-term, upward sloping channel formed by line (1) and (2). This development is incredibly important…...
The DJI’s Potentially Ominous Break of Long-Term Trend
Have been discussing 12 mo MAs on U.S. equity indices with some of you recently and their importance in defining cycle inflection points. If we go through the DJI as of July’s close we find that: It has closed > 12 mo…...